Into the problem thus presented Lagrange threw himself, and he succeeded
in showing that no such explanation of the origin of the earth is
possible. The excentricity of the orbit, though now decreasing, was not
always decreasing; ages ago it was increasing: it passes through
periodic changes. Eighteen thousand years ago its excentricity was a
maximum; since then it has been diminishing, and will continue to
diminish for 25,000 years more, when it will be an almost perfect
circle; it will then begin to increase again, and so on. The obliquity
of the ecliptic is also changing periodically, but not greatly: the
change is less than three degrees.
This research has, or ought to have, the most transcendent interest for
geologists and geographers. You know that geologists find traces of
extraordinary variations of temperature on the surface of the earth.
England was at one time tropical, at another time glacial. Far away
north, in Spitzbergen, evidence of the luxuriant vegetation of past ages
has been found; and the explanation of these great climatic changes has
long been a puzzle. Does not the secular variation in excentricity of
the earth's orbit, combined with the precession of the equinoxes, afford
a key? And if a key at all, it will be an accurate key, and enable us to
calculate back with some precision to the date of the glacial epoch;
and again to the time when a tropical flora flourished in what is now
northern Europe, _i.e._ to the date of the Carboniferous era.
This aspect of the subject has recently been taught with vigour and
success by Dr. Croll in his book "Climate and Time."
A brief and partial explanation of the matter may be given, because
it is a point of some interest and is also one of fair simplicity.
Every one knows that the climatic conditions of winter and summer
are inverted in the two hemispheres, and that at present the sun is
nearest to us in our (northern) winter. In other words, the earth's
axis is inclined so as to tilt its north pole away from the sun at
perihelion, or when the earth is at the part of its elliptic orbit
nearest the sun's focus; and to tilt it towards the sun at
aphelion. The result of this present state of things is to diminish
the intensity of the average northern winter and of the average
northern summer, and on the other hand to aggravate the extremes of
temperature in the southern hemisphere; all other things being
equal. Of course other things are not equal, and the distribution
of land and sea is a still more powerful climatic agent than is the
three million miles or so extra nearness of the sun. But it is
supposed that the Antarctic ice-cap is larger than the northern,
and increased summer radiation with increased winter cold would
account for this.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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