However, the long rail haul and the correspondingly high cost of mining have retarded the ocean export business of Germany, in spite of the fostering care of the government. With the transfer of practically all its iron deposits and its important Lorraine potash deposits, as well as the ownership of its Saar coal mines, to France, and the possible loss of its Upper Silesian coal and zinc deposits to Poland, the balance of commercial prosperity, as well, may be handed over. No other countries except the United States, Canada, Australia and China have reserves for extensive export trade. In _Canada_ the coals are mostly inland, and those near the coast, as on Vancouver Island and in Nova Scotia, are limited in quantity and difficult to mine, so that export business is perforce restricted. One change that seems likely is a rapid increase in output of coal in _China_. The resources are enormous, the reserves of the higher classes of coal being surpassed by those of no country but the United States. The ambitious and aggressive Japanese, with their strategic neighboring location, have given every indication that they will take advantage of an opportunity to develop such a resource. It may be a question how soon Chinese coal will be developed, but great changes are inevitable when development begins. Some of the coal fields are so near the coast and have coals of such good quality as to permit an extensive development of export business in the Orient. _Australia_, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, has coal resources that are considerable, in comparison with the needs of the small population. In New South Wales the coals are excellent and are adjacent or close to harbors, so that the coal is extensively supplied for bunkerage and export trade to the South Pacific and has become a large factor in the ocean trade of that part of the world. A large factor in the coal trade of the Pacific Ocean is the carrying of coal as return cargo. This is also important in South American trade. South Africa during the war sent considerable coal to the western Mediterranean, but its coal cannot be a large factor in ocean trade in normal times. Of all the continents South America is the poorest in coal resources. There is coal in _Brazil_ and _Chile_ and other South American countries, but it is difficult to reach and the fields so far known do not give promise of being able to take care of the needs of the countries in which they occur. The total annual production of South America is less than two million tons, mostly from Chile. It is probable that for the next generation South America will continue to import coal as it has in the past, to the extent of 15 million tons or more per annum, although developments in Brazil are now promising for that country’s future supply. For estimates of reserves, see Table 5.