If rates of first incarceration remain unchanged, 6.6% of all persons born in the United States in 2001 will go to State or Federal prison during their lifetime, up from 5.2% in 1991, and 1.9% in 1974. Unlike the prevalence of ever having gone to prison, which estimates the extent of past experiences, the lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the chances of future incarceration, given unchanged rates of first incarceration and mortality. +4.3 million U.S. residents in 2001 were former prisoners+ Of the estimated 5.6 million adults in the United States who had been incarcerated in State or Federal prison at some time before yearend 2001, nearly 4.3 million were no longer in prison (table 1). Former prisoners accounted for 77% of all adult residents who had ever been confined in prison. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- +Table 1. Prevalence of incarceration in a State or Federal prison, by current and former prisoners, 1974-2001+ Current and former prisoners ever incarcerated in a State or Federal prison-- 1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001 Number incarcerated Total 1,819,000 2,100,000 2,667,000 3,437,000 4,652,000 5,618,000 Current 216,000 302,000 524,000 788,000 1,171,000 1,319,000 Former 1,603,000 1,798,000 2,143,000 2,649,000 3,481,000 4,299,000 Ever incarcerated rate* Total 1,251 1,308 1,516 1,828 2,336 2,673 Current 149 188 298 419 588 628 Former 1,102 1,120 1,218 1,409 1,748 2,045 Note: Numbers of current adult prisoners from National Prisoner Statistics data series. Former prisoner statistics based on inmate survey data. Estimates were rounded to the nearest 1,000. See _Methodology_ for estimation procedures. *The number ever incarcerated per 100,000 adult U.S. residents. U.S. adult resident population 1974 1986 1991 1997 2001 145,356,000 175,886,630 187,982,751 199,121,734 210,207,901 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Persons ages 35 to 44 comprised the largest age group, accounting for 3 out of 10 former prisoners at yearend 2001 (1,280,000). Former prisoners were older than those currently in State or Federal prison, with 49% of former prisoners age 45 or older compared to 13% of persons confined on December 31, 2001. Current prisoners outnumbered former prisoners only among those ages 18 to 24 (254,000 compared with 155,000). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of adults with prison experience, 2001 Former Current Age inmates inmates