view into the future can reach. It is, indeed, obvious that our view
can never reach far enough for us to be certain that any action will
produce the best possible effects. We must be content, if the greatest
possible balance of good seems to be produced within a limited period.
But it is important to notice that the whole series of effects within
a period of considerable length is actually taken account of in our
common judgments that an action is good as a means; and that hence
this additional complication, which makes ethical generalisations so
far more difficult to establish than scientific laws, is one which is
involved in actual ethical discussions, and is of practical importance.
The commonest rules of conduct involve such considerations as the
balancing of future bad health against immediate gains; and even if we
can never settle with any certainty how we shall secure the greatest
possible total of good, we try at least to assure ourselves that
probable future evils will not be greater than the immediate good.
=17.= There are, then, judgments which state that certain kinds of
things have good effects; and such judgments, for the reasons just
given, have the important characteristics (1) that they are unlikely to
be true, if they state that the kind of thing in question _always_ has
good effects, and (2) that, even if they only state that it _generally_
has good effects, many of them will only be true of certain periods
in the world’s history. On the other hand there are judgments which
state that certain kinds of things are themselves good; and these
differ from the last in that, if true at all, they are all of them
universally true. It is, therefore, extremely important to distinguish
these two kinds of possible judgments. Both may be expressed in the
same language: in both cases we commonly say ‘Such and such a thing is
good.’ But in the one case ‘good’ will mean ‘good as means,’ _i.e._
merely that the thing is a means to good--will have good effects:
in the other case it will mean ‘good as end’--we shall be judging
that the thing itself has the property which, in the first case, we
asserted only to belong to its effects. It is plain that these are very
different assertions to make about a thing; it is plain that either or
both of them may be made, both truly and falsely, about all manner of
things; and it is certain that unless we are clear as to which of the
two we mean to assert, we shall have a very poor chance of deciding
rightly whether our assertion is true or false. It is precisely this
clearness as to the meaning of the question asked which has hitherto
been almost entirely lacking in ethical speculation. Ethics has always
been predominantly concerned with the investigation of a limited
class of actions. With regard to these we may ask _both_ how far they
are good in themselves _and_ how far they have a general tendency to
produce good results. And the arguments brought forward in ethical
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