Japan and China having been considered, the rest of Asia is negligible
as affecting the destiny of the Pacific except in so far as India can
serve as basis of action for British power. An independent Indian nation
is hardly one of the possibilities of the future. Religious, racial, and
caste distinctions make a united, independent India at present
impossible. Unless the British Power carries too far a tendency to
conciliate the talking tribes of the Hindoo peninsula at the expense of
the fighting tribes, it should hold India by right of a system of
government which is good though not perfect, and by reason of the
impossibility of suggesting any substitute. In the event of a failure of
the British Power, India would still, in all probability, fail to take a
place among the great nations of the earth. Either she would fall a
victim to some other nation or relapse into the condition, near to
anarchy, which was hers before the coming of the Europeans.
It is not possible to imagine to-day any European Power other than Great
Britain--with the possible exception of Russia--becoming strongly
established in the Pacific. France and Germany have footholds certainly.
But in neither case is the territory held by them possible of great
development, and in neither case is there a chain of strategic stations
to connect the Pacific colony with the Mother Country. The despatch of
the German "mailed fist" to Kiao-Chou in China some years ago is still
remembered as one of the comic rather than the serious episodes of
history. The squadron bearing to the Chinese the martial threat of the
German Emperor had to beg its way from one British coaling station to
another because of the lack of German ports.
The influence of South America in the Pacific need not yet be
calculated. It is a possible far-future factor in the problem; and the
completion of Trans-Andine railways may quickly enhance the importance
of Chili and Peru. But for the present South America can take no great
part in the Pacific struggle.
It is when British influence and American influence in the Pacific come
to be considered that the most important factors in the contest for its
supremacy enter upon the stage. Let us consider, for the nonce, the two
Powers separately.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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