Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
The two types of operators above described are always working against
each other. The buying or selling of the “impulsive” trader tends to
force prices up or down, while the scale orders of the “phlegmatic”
class tend to oppose any movement.
For example, let us suppose that banking interests believe conditions
to be fundamentally sound and that the general trend of the market
will be upward for some time to come. Orders are therefore placed by
various persons to buy stocks every point down, or every half, quarter,
or even eighth point down.
On the other hand, the active floor traders find that, owing to some
temporary unfavorable development, a following can be obtained on the
bear side. They perceive the presence of scale orders, but they think
stocks enough will come out on the decline to fill the scale orders and
leave a balance over.
To put it another way, the floating supply of stocks has become, at
the moment, larger than can comfortably be tossed about from hand to
hand by the in-and-out class of traders. The market must decline until
a part of this floating supply is absorbed by the scale orders which
underlie current prices.
These conditions produce what is commonly called a “reaction.” Once
this surplus floating supply of stocks is absorbed by standing orders,
the market is ready to start upward again. If the general trend is
upward, far less resistance will be encountered on the advance than
was met on the reaction; hence prices rise to a new high level. Then
profit-taking sales will be met, on limited or scale orders at various
prices, and as the market advances the floating supply will gradually
increase until it again becomes unwieldy and another reaction is
necessary.
Eventually a level is reached, or some change in conditions appears,
which causes these scale buying orders to be partially or entirely
withdrawn, and selling orders to be substituted on a scale up. The bull
market will not go much further after this change takes place. It has
now become easier to produce declines than advances. The situation is
the reverse of that described above, and a bear market follows.
Commonly there is a considerable period around top prices when scale
buying orders are still found on declines, but profit-taking sales are
also met on advances, so that the market is kept fluctuating within
comparatively narrow limits for a month or more. In fact, it is likely
to be kept on this level so long as public buying continues greater
than public selling. This is sometimes called “distribution.” A similar
period of “accumulation” often occurs after a bear market has run its
course, and before any important advance appears.
A close watch of transactions, or a study of continuous quotations as
published in certain newspapers, often enables the experienced trader
to discover when the most important of these scale orders are withdrawn
or reversed.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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