Psychology of the stock marketSelden, G. C. (George Charles)
Science
Psychology of the stock market
Selden, G. C. (George Charles)
Investments -- Psychological aspects; Speculation
The same principle is often carried further. You will find professional
traders reasoning that favorable figures on the steel industry, for
example, have been concocted to enable insiders to sell their Steel; or
that gloomy reports are put in circulation to facilitate accumulation.
Hence they may act in direct opposition to the news and carry the
market with them, for the time at least.
The less the trader knows about the fundamentals of the financial
situation the more likely he is to be led astray in conclusions of this
character. If he has confidence in the general strength of conditions
he may be ready to accept as genuine and natural, a piece of news which
he would otherwise receive with cynical skepticism and use as a basis
for short sales. If he knows that fundamental conditions are unsound,
he will not be so likely to interpret bad news as issued to assist in
accumulation of stocks.
The same reasoning is applied to large purchases through brokers known
to be associated with capitalists. In fact, in this case we often hear
a double inversion, as it were. Such buying may impress the observer in
three ways:
1. The “rank outsider” takes it at face value, as bullish.
2. A more experienced trader may say, “If they really wished to get
the stocks they would not buy through their own brokers, but would
endeavor to conceal their buying by scattering it among other houses.”
3. A still more suspicious professional may turn another mental
somersault and say, “They are buying through their own brokers so as to
throw us off the scent and make us think someone else is using their
brokers as a blind.” By this double somersault such a trader arrives at
the same conclusion as the outsider.
The reasoning of traders becomes even more complicated when large
buying or selling is done openly by a big professional who is known
to trade in-and-out for small profits. If he buys 50,000 shares,
other traders are quite willing to sell to him and their opinion of
the market is little influenced, simply because they know he may sell
50,000 the next day or even the next hour. For this reason great
capitalists sometimes buy or sell through such big professional
traders in order to execute their orders easily and without arousing
suspicion. Hence the play of subtle intellects around big trading of
this kind often becomes very elaborate.
It is to be noticed that this inverted reasoning is useful chiefly at
the top or bottom of a movement, when distribution or accumulation is
taking place on a large scale. A market which repeatedly refuses to
respond to good news after a considerable advance is likely to be “full
of stocks.” Likewise a market which will not go down on bad news is
usually “bare of stocks.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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