Quo vadimus? : $b Some glimpses of the futureFournier d'Albe, E. E. (Edmund Edward)
Philosophy
Quo vadimus? : $b Some glimpses of the future
Fournier d'Albe, E. E. (Edmund Edward)
Civilization; Progress
As regards wireless broadcasting, it is too early to speak of its
permanent effects. It has come upon us like an avalanche. For the first
time, it has enlisted youth in the highest electrical problems. It has
paved the way for the general diffusion of scientific knowledge while
ostensibly popularizing the art of music. In any case, it is a complete
answer to Ben Akiba and his saying about there being nothing new.
Mr. J. B. S. Haldane[2] believes that the centre of scientific interest
now lies in biology, and that physiology will eventually invade and
destroy mathematical physics. It is quite possible that the advance
of what physicists sometimes playfully call the “inexact” sciences
may cast those of physics and chemistry entirely in the shade, but
although biology has made some difference to human life in the last
generation, its effects cannot remotely compare with those of physical
and chemical discoveries. The mere increase of speed in transport,
due to the internal-combustion engine, has caused a speeding-up of
the whole nervous system and a brightening of the intelligence of all
but an insignificant fraction of the population. When the choice lies
between the Quick and the Dead, even the most sluggish temperament will
put on a spurt, and this continued sprinting across the motor traffic
has produced a more agile generation. If such a profound difference can
be made in twenty years, what will be the effect of even 200 years of
continually accelerated progress?
[2] _Dædalus_, pp. 10 and 16.
The continual acceleration of the rate of progress must not be lost
sight of in forecasting the future. It happens to coincide with a
similar increase in the consumption of accumulated fuels, like coal
and oil, and might be expected to slow down when those supplies of
preserved sunlight come to an end. But by that time other accumulations
will no doubt have been discovered and utilized.
Unless the Russian blight extends over Europe and America, we may
confidently look forward to a long era of steadily accelerated
progress. What form that progress will take is notoriously difficult
to forecast. The main difficulty arises from the fact that the most
promising discoveries sometimes turn out to be impracticable, or at
least of quite secondary importance. Nobody prophesied the great
development of the motor car, nor of that gigantic child of the old
Zoetrope or “Wheel of Life” which we call the Picture Theatre. A genius
like H. G. Wells could indeed write a marvellously accurate forecast
of flying achievements, but in one of his books he makes a great deal
of the Brennan mono-rail, which, after a sensational beginning, failed
to reach maturity, probably owing to the temporary failure of that
much-maligned but quite essential fertilizer of inventions, capital.
Other inventions, such as the speaking film, bear within themselves
certain weaknesses which may prevent them from attaining great
popularity.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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