Steps taken by the Chinese Government toward governmental
reorganization in mid-April, 1947, aroused hopes of improvement
in the political situation. However, the reorganization resulted
in little change. Reactionary influences continue to mold
important policies even though the Generalissimo remains the
principal determinative force in the government. Since the April
reorganization, the most significant change has been the appointment
of General Chen Cheng to head the civil and militant administration
in Manchuria. Projected steps include elections in the Fall for
the formation of a constitutional government, but, under present
conditions, they are not expected to result in a government more
representative than the present regime.
ECONOMIC
Under the impact of civil strife and inflation, the Chinese
economy is disintegrating. The most probable outcome of present
trends would be, not sudden collapse, but a continued and creeping
paralysis and consequent decline in the authority and power of the
National Government. The past ten years of war have caused serious
deterioration of transportation and communication facilities, mines,
utilities and industries. Notwithstanding some commendable efforts
and large amounts of economic aid; their overall capabilities
are scarcely half those of the prewar period. With disruption of
transportation facilities and the loss of much of North China and
Manchuria, important resources of those rich areas are no longer
available for the rehabilitation and support of China’s economy.
Inflation in China has been diffused slowly through an enormous
population without causing the immediate dislocation which would
have occurred in a highly industrialized economy. The rural people,
80 per cent of the total Chinese population of 450 millions, barter
foodstuffs for local handicraft products without suffering a drastic
cut in living standards. Thus, local economies exist in many parts of
China, largely insulated from the disruption of urban industry. Some
local economies are under the control of Communists, and some are
loosely under the control of provincial authorities.
The principal cause of the hyper-inflation is the long-continued
deficit in the national budget. Present revenue collections, plus
the profits of nationalized enterprises, cover only one-third of
governmental expenditures, which are approximately 70 per cent
military, and an increasing proportion of the budget is financed
by the issuance of new currency. In the first six months of 1947
note-issue was tripled but rice prices increased seven-fold. Thus
prices and governmental expenditures spiral upwards, with price
increases occurring faster than new currency can be printed. With
further price increases, budget revisions will undoubtedly be
necessary. The most urgent economic need of Nationalist China is a
reduction of the military budget.
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