China’s external official assets amounted to $327 million (US) on
July 30, 1947. Privately-held foreign exchange assets are at least
$600 million and may total $1500 million, but no serious attempt has
been made to mobilize these private resources for rehabilitation
purposes. Private Chinese assets located in China include probably
$200 million in gold, and about $75 million in US currency notes.
Although China has not exhausted her foreign official assets, and
probably will not do so at the present rates of imports and exports
until early 1949, the continuing deficit in her external balance of
payments is a serious problem.
Disparity between the prices of export goods in China and in world
markets at unrealistic official exchange rates has greatly penalized
exports, as have disproportionate increases in wages and other costs.
Despite rigorous trade and exchange controls, imports have greatly
exceeded exports, and there consistently has been a heavy adverse
trade balance.
China’s food harvests this year are expected to be significantly
larger than last year’s fairly good returns. This moderately
encouraging situation with regard to crops is among the few favorable
factors which can be found in China’s current economic situation.
Under inflationary conditions, long-term investment is unattractive
for both Chinese and foreign capital. Private Chinese funds tends to
go into short-term advances, hoarding of commodities, and capital
flight The entire psychology is speculative and inflationary,
preventing ordinary business planning and handicapping industrial
recovery.
Foreign business enterprises in China are adversely affected by
the inefficient and corrupt administration of exchange and import
controls, discriminatory application of tax laws, the increasing
role of government trading agencies and the trend towards state
ownership of industries. The Chinese Government has taken some steps
toward improvement but generally has been apathetic in its efforts.
Between 1944 and 1947, the anti-inflationary measure on which the
Chinese Government placed most reliance was the public sale of gold
borrowed from the United States. The intention was to absorb paper
currency, and thus reduce the effective demand for goods. Under the
circumstance of continued large deficits, however, the only effect of
the gold sales program was to retard slightly the price inflation and
dissipate dollar assets.
A program to stabilize the economic situation was undertaken in
February, 1947. The measures included a wage freeze, a system of
limited rationing to essential workers in a few cities, and the sale
of government bonds. The effect of this program has been slight, and
the wage freeze has been abandoned. In August, 1947, the unrealistic
official rate of exchange was replaced, for proceeds of exports
and remittances, by a free market in foreign exchange. This step
is expected to stimulate exports, but it is too early to determine
whether it will be effective.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account