The training of a stock trader is like a medical education. The
physician has to spend long years learning anatomy, physiology, materia
medica and collateral subjects by the dozen. He learns the theory
and then proceeds to devote his life to the practice. He observes and
classifies all sorts of pathological phenomena. He learns to diagnose.
If his diagnosis is correct--and that depends upon the accuracy of
his observation--he ought to do pretty well in his prognosis, always
keeping in mind, of course, that human fallibility and the utterly
unforeseen will keep him from scoring 100 per cent of bull’s-eyes.
And then, as he gains in experience, he learns not only to do the
right thing but to do it instantly, so that many people will think he
does it instinctively. It really isn’t automatism. It is that he has
diagnosed the case according to his observations of such cases during
a period of many years; and, naturally, after he has diagnosed it, he
can only treat it in the way that experience has taught him is the
proper treatment. You can transmit knowledge--that is, your particular
collection of card-indexed facts--but not your experience. _A man may
know what to do and lose money--if he doesn’t do it quickly enough._
Observation, experience, memory and mathematics--these are what the
successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe accurately
but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on
the unreasonable or on the unexpected, however strong his personal
convictions may be about man’s unreasonableness or however certain
he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet
always on probabilities--that is, try to anticipate them. Years of
practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable
the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as
when the expected comes to pass.
A man can have great mathematical ability and an unusual power of
accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also
possesses _the experience and the memory_. And then, like the physician
who keeps up with the advances of science, _the wise trader never
ceases to study general conditions, to keep track of developments
everywhere that are likely to affect or influence the course of the
various markets_. After years at the game it becomes a habit to keep
posted. He acts almost automatically. He requires the invaluable
professional attitude and that enables him to beat the game--at times!
This difference between the professional and the amateur or occasional
trader cannot be overemphasised. I find, for instance, that memory
and mathematics help me very much. Wall Street makes its money on a
mathematical basis. I mean, _it makes its money by dealing with facts
and figures_.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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