Now, ordinarily a man ought to be able to buy or sell a million bushels
of wheat within a range of ¼ cent. On this day when I sold the 250,000
bushels to test the market for timeliness, the price went down ¼ cent.
Then, since the reaction did not definitely tell me all I wished to
know, I sold another quarter of a million bushels. I noticed that it
was taken in driblets; that is, the buying was in lots of 10,000 or
15,000 bushels instead of being taken in two or three transactions
which would have been the normal way. In addition to the homeopathic
buying the price went down 1¼ cents on my selling. Now, I need not
waste my time pointing out that the way in which the market took my
wheat and the disproportionate decline on my selling told me that there
was no buying power there. Such being the case, what was the only
thing to do? Of course, to sell a lot more. Following the dictates
of experience may possibly fool you, now and then. But not following
them invariably makes an ass of you. So I sold 2,000,000 bushels and
the price went down some more. A few days later the market’s behaviour
practically compelled me to sell an additional 2,000,000 bushels and
the price declined further still; a few days later wheat started to
break badly and slumped off 6 cents a bushel. And it didn’t stop there.
It has been going down, with short-lived rallies.
Now, I didn’t follow a hunch. Nobody gave me a tip. It was my habitual
or professional mental attitude toward the commodities markets that
gave me the profit and that attitude came from my years at this
business. I study because my business is to trade. The moment the tape
told me that I was on the right track my business duty was to increase
my line. I did. That is all there is to it.
I have found that experience is apt to be a steady dividend payer in
this game and that observation gives you the best tips of all. The
behaviour of a certain stock is all you need at times. You observe it.
Then experience shows you how to profit by variations from the usual,
that is, from the probable. For example, we know _that all stocks do
not move one way together but that all the stocks of a group will move
up in a bull market and down in a bear market_. This is a common-place
of speculation. It is the commonest of all self-given tips and the
commission houses are well aware of it and pass it on to any customer
who has not thought of it himself; I mean, the advice to trade in those
stocks which have lagged behind other stocks of the same group. Thus,
if U.S. Steel goes up, it is logically assumed that it is only a matter
of time when Crucible or Republic or Bethlehem will follow suit. Trade
conditions and prospects should work alike with all stocks of a group
and the prosperity should be shared by all. On the theory, corroborated
by experience times without number, that every dog has his day in the
market, the public will buy A.B. Steel because it has not advanced
while C.D. Steel and X.Y. Steel have gone up.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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