Now, however, the reason that had made me cover at a big loss was no
longer a good reason since there had not been the usual prompt and
vigorous rally. So I sold 10,000 bales and waited. Pretty soon the
market went off 50 points. I waited a little while longer. There was no
rally. I had got pretty hungry by now, so I went into the dining-room
and ordered my luncheon. Before the waiter could serve it, I jumped up,
went to the broker’s office, I saw that there had been no rally and so
I sold 10,000 bales more. I waited a little and had the pleasure of
seeing the price decline 40 points more. That showed me I was trading
correctly so I returned to the dining-room ate my luncheon and went
back to the broker’s. There was no rally in cotton that day. That very
night I left Hot Springs.
It was all very well to play golf but I had been wrong in cotton in
selling when I did and in covering when I did. So I simply had to get
back on the job and be where I could trade in comfort. The way the
market took my first ten thousand bales made me sell the second ten
thousand, and the way the market took the second made me certain the
turn had come. It was the difference in behaviour.
Well, I reached Washington and went to my brokers’ office there, which
was in charge of my old friend Tucker. While I was there the market
went down some more. I was more confident of being right now than I had
been of being wrong before. So I sold 40,000 bales and the market went
off 75 points. It showed that there was no support there. That night
the market closed still lower. The old buying power was plainly gone.
There was no telling at what level that power would again develop, but
I felt confident of the wisdom of my position. The next morning I left
Washington for New York by motor. There was no need to hurry.
When we got to Philadelphia I drove to a broker’s office. I saw that
there was the very dickens to pay in the cotton market. Prices had
broken badly and there was a small-sized panic on. I didn’t wait to get
to New York. I called up my brokers on the long distance and I covered
my shorts. As soon as I got my reports and found that I had practically
made up my previous loss, I motored on to New York without having to
stop en route to see any more quotations.
Some friends who were with me in Hot Springs talk to this day of
the way I jumped up from the luncheon table to sell that second lot
of 10,000 bales. But again that clearly was not a hunch. It was an
impulse that came from the conviction that the time to sell cotton
had now come, however great my previous mistake had been. I had to
take advantage of it. It was my chance. The subconscious mind probably
went on working, reaching conclusions for me. The decision to sell in
Washington was the result of my observation. My years of experience in
trading told me that the line of least resistance had changed from up
to down.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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