I had an interesting experience in cotton. I was bearish on stocks and
put out a moderate short line. At the same time I sold cotton short;
50,000 bales. My stock deal proved profitable and I neglected my
cotton. The first thing I knew I had a loss of $250,000 on my 50,000
bales. As I said, my stock deal was so interesting and I was doing
so well in it that I did not wish to take my mind off it. Whenever I
thought of cotton I just said to myself: “I’ll wait for a reaction and
cover.” The price would react a little but before I could decide to
take my loss and cover, the price would rally again, and go higher than
ever. So I’d decide again to wait a little and I’d go back to my stock
deal and confine my attention to that. Finally I closed out my stocks
at a very handsome profit and went away to Hot Springs for a rest and a
holiday.
That really was the first time that I had my mind free to deal with the
problem of my losing deal in cotton. The trade had gone against me.
There were times when it almost looked as if I might win out. I noticed
that whenever anybody sold heavily there was a good reaction. But
almost instantly the price would rally and make a new high for the move.
Finally, by the time I had been in Hot Springs a few days, I was a
million to the bad and no let up in the rising tendency. I thought
over all I had done and had not done and I said to myself: “I must be
wrong!” With me to feel that I am wrong and to decide to get out are
practically one process. So I covered, at a loss of about one million.
The next morning I was playing golf and not thinking of anything else.
I had made my play in cotton. I had been wrong. I had paid for being
wrong and the receipted bill was in my pocket. I had no more concern
with the cotton market than I have at this moment. When I went back
to the hotel for luncheon I stopped at the broker’s office and took a
look at the quotations. I saw that cotton had gone off 50 points. That
wasn’t anything. But I also noticed that it had not rallied as it had
been in the habit of doing for weeks, as soon as the pressure of the
particular selling that had depressed it eased up. This had indicated
that the line of least resistance was upward and it had cost me a
million to shut my eyes to it.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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