I can’t see that I said anything harrowing, but you could have heard
his howls in China. He simply wouldn’t listen to such a thing. It would
never do. It would play the dickens with the stock’s record, to say
nothing of inconvenient possibilities at the banks where the stock was
held as collateral on loans, and so on.
I told him again that in my judgment nothing in the world could prevent
Pete Products from breaking fifteen or twenty points, because the
entire market was headed that way, and I once more said it was absurd
to expect his stock to be a dazzling exception. But again my talk went
for nothing. He insisted that I support the stock.
Here was a shrewd business man, one of the most successful promoters of
the day, who had made millions in Wall Street deals and knew much more
than the average man about the game of speculation, actually insisting
on supporting a stock in an incipient bear market. It was his stock,
to be sure, but it was nevertheless bad business. So much so that it
went against the grain and I again began to argue with him. But it was
no use. He insisted on putting in supporting orders.
Of course when the general market got weak and the decline began in
earnest Pete Products went with the rest. Instead of selling I actually
bought stock for the insiders’ pool--by Prentiss’ orders.
The only explanation is that Prentiss did not believe the bear market
was right on top of us. I myself was confident that the bull market
was over. I had verified my first surmise by tests not alone in Pete
Products but in other stocks as well. I didn’t wait for the bear market
to announce its safe arrival before I started selling. Of course I
didn’t sell a share of Pete Products, though I was short of other
stocks.
The Pete Products pool, as I expected, was hung up with all they held
to begin with and with all they had to take in their futile effort to
hold up the price. In the end they did liquidate; but at much lower
figures than they would have got if Prentiss had let me sell when and
as I wished. It could not be otherwise. But Prentiss still thinks he
was right--or says he does. I understand he says the reason I gave him
the advice I did was that I was short of other stocks and the general
market was going up. It implies, of course, that the break in Pete
Products that would have resulted from selling out the pool’s holdings
at any price would have helped my bear position in other stocks.
That is all tommyrot. I was not bearish because I was short of stocks.
I was bearish because that was the way I sized up the situation, and
I sold stocks short only after I turned bearish. There never is much
money in doing things wrong end to; not in the stock market. My plan
for selling the pool’s stock was based on what the experience of twenty
years told me alone was feasible and therefore wise. Prentiss ought to
have been enough of a trader to see it as plainly as I did. It was too
late to try to do anything else.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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