Urged by the deluge of bullish news items the public begins to buy
the stock. These purchases help to put the price still higher. In due
course the predictions of the uniformly unnamed directors come true
and the company resumes dividend payments; or increases the rate, as
the case may be. With that the bullish items multiply. They not only
are more numerous than ever but much more enthusiastic. A “leading
director,” asked point blank for a statement of conditions, informs
the world that the improvement is more than keeping up. A “prominent
insider,” after much coaxing, is finally induced by a news-agency
to confess that the earnings are nothing short of phenomenal. A
“well-known banker,” who is affiliated in a business way with the
company, is made to say that the expansion in the volume of sales
is simply unprecedented in the history of the trade. If not another
order came in the company would run night and day for heaven knows how
many months. A “member of the finance committee,” in a double-leaded
manifesto, expresses his astonishment at the public’s astonishment over
the stock’s rise. The only astonishing thing is the stock’s moderation
in the climbing line. Anybody who will analyse the forthcoming annual
report can easily figure how much more than the market-price the
book-value of the stock is. But in no instance is the name of the
communicative philanthropist given.
As long as the earnings continue good and the insiders do not discern
any sign of a let up in the company’s prosperity they sit on the stock
they bought at the low prices. There is nothing to put the price
down, so why should they sell? But the moment there is a turn for the
worse in the company’s business, what happens? Do they come out with
statements or warnings or the faintest of hints? Not much. The trend
is now downward. Just as they bought without any flourish of trumpets
when the company’s business turned for the better, they now silently
sell. On this inside selling the stock naturally declines. Then the
public begins to get the familiar “explanations.” A “leading insider”
asserts that everything is O.K. and the decline is merely the result of
selling by bears who are trying to affect the general market. If on
one fine day, after the stock has been declining for some time, there
should be a sharp break, the demand for “reasons” or “explanations”
becomes clamorous. Unless somebody says something the public will fear
the worst. So the news-tickers now print something like this: “When
we asked a prominent director of the company to explain the weakness
in the stock, he replied that the only conclusion he could arrive at
was that the decline today was caused by a bear drive. Underlying
conditions are unchanged. The business of the company was never better
than at present and the probabilities are that unless something
entirely unforeseen happens in the meanwhile, there will be an increase
in the rate at the next dividend meeting. The bear party in the market
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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