The overwhelming majority of the bullish articles printed on the
authority of unnamed directors or insiders convey unreliable and
misleading impressions to the public. The public loses many millions of
dollars every year by accepting such statements as semi-official and
therefore trustworthy.
Say for example that a company has gone through a period of depression
in its particular line of business. The stock is inactive. The
quotation represents the general and presumably accurate belief of its
actual value. If the stock were too cheap at that level somebody would
know it and buy it and it would advance. If too dear somebody would
know enough to sell it and the price would decline. As nothing happens
one way or another nobody talks about it or does anything.
The turn comes in the line of business the company is engaged in. Who
are the first to know it, the insiders or the public? You can bet it
isn’t the public. What happens next? Why, if the improvement continues
the earnings will increase and the company will be in position to
resume dividends on the stock; or, if dividends were not discontinued,
to pay a higher rate. That is, the value of the stock will increase.
Say that the improvement keeps up. Does the management make public
that glad fact? Does the president tell the stockholders? Does a
philanthropic director come out with a signed statement for the benefit
of that part of the public that reads the financial page in the
newspapers and the slips of the news agencies? Does some modest insider
pursuing his usual policy of anonymity come out with an unsigned
statement to the effect that the company’s future is most promising?
Not this time. Not a word is said by anyone and no statement whatever
is printed by newspapers or tickers.
The value-making information is carefully kept from the public while
the now taciturn “prominent insiders” go into the market and buy all
the cheap stock they can lay their hands on. As this well-informed
but unostentatious buying keeps on, the stock rises. The financial
reporters, knowing that the insiders ought to know the reason for the
rise, ask questions. The unanimously anonymous insiders unanimously
declare that they have no news to give out. They do not know that there
is any warrant for the rise. Sometimes they even state that they are
not particularly concerned with the vagaries of the stock market or the
actions of stock speculators.
The rise continues and there comes a happy day when those who know have
all the stock they want or can carry. The Street at once begins to hear
all kinds of bullish rumours. The tickers tell the traders “on good
authority” that the company has definitely turned the corner. The same
modest director who did not wish his name used when he said he knew
no warrant for the rise in the stock is now quoted--of course not by
name--as saying that the stockholders have every reason to feel greatly
encouraged over the outlook.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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