Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjectsProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
But now, to revert to our illustrative case, let us suppose that after
passing the windows of six or seven horologists, from whose clocks we
have obtained such satisfactory evidence as to the probable hour, we
bethought ourselves of a place where, from what we had heard, a still
more exact determination of the hour might be obtained. While still
on the way, however, we learn from a friend certain circumstances
suggesting the possibility that the clocks at the place in question
may not be so correct as we had supposed. Persisting, however, in our
purpose, we arrive at the place, and carefully compare the indications
of the various clocks there with the time indicated by our watch,
corrected (be it supposed) in accordance with the results of our former
observations. Suppose now that the hour indicated by the various
clocks at this place, instead of agreeing closely with that which we
had thus inferred, differs from it by fully half a minute. Is it not
clear that instead of being led by this result to correct our former
estimate of the probable hour, we should at once infer that the doubts
which had been suggested as to the correctness of the various clocks
at this place were fully justified? The evidence of the other sets of
clocks would certainly not be invalidated by the evidence given by the
set last visited, even if the accuracy of these had not been called
in question. But if, as supposed, some good reason had been given for
doubt on this point,--as for instance, that of late the supervision
of the clocks had been interrupted,--we should not hesitate for a
moment to reject the evidence given by these clocks, or at least to
regard it as only tending to demonstrate what before we had been led
to surmise, namely, that these clocks could not be relied upon to show
true time. If however, furthermore, we found, not only that the mean
of the various times indicated by the clocks at this last-visited
place differed thus widely from the time which we had every reason
to consider very nearly exact, but that the different clocks here
differed as widely from each other, it would be absurd to rely upon
their evidence. The circumstance that there was a range of difference
of fully half a minute in their indications would of itself suffice
to show how untrustworthy they were, at least for the use of any one
who wished to obtain the time with great accuracy. Combined with the
observed difference between their mean time and that before obtained,
this circumstance would prove the inaccuracy of the clocks beyond all
possibility of doubt or question.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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