Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjectsProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Can we hesitate as to the inference we should deduce from this result?
We need not for a moment call in question the skill or care with which
the British observing parties carried out their operations. Nor need we
doubt that the results obtained have been most skilfully and cautiously
investigated by those to whom the work of supervision and of reduction
has been entrusted. We need not even question the policy of devoting
so large a share of labour and expense to the employment of a method
held in little favour by most experienced Continental and American
astronomers, and objected to by many in England, including some even
among official astronomers. It was perhaps well that the method should
have one fair and full trial. And it is certain that all who have
taken part in the work have done their duty zealously and skilfully.
Captain Tupman, to whom Sir George Airy, our chief official astronomer,
entrusted the management of the calculations, has received, and justly,
from his official superior, the highest commendation for his energy and
discrimination. But beyond all manner of doubt the method employed has
failed under the test thus applied to it. I do not say that hereafter
the method may not succeed. Some of the conditions which at present
render it untrustworthy are such as may be expected to be modified
with the progress of improvement in the construction of scientific
instruments. But as yet the method is certainly not trustworthy.
This might be safely concluded from the wide discrepancy between
the new result and the mean of those before obtained. Yet if all
the various observations made by the British observing parties
agreed closely together, the circumstance, though it could hardly
shake our inference on this point, would yet cause some degree
of perplexity, since, of itself, it would seem to imply that the
method was trustworthy. Fortunately we are not thus troubled by
conflicting evidence. The indications of the untrustworthy nature of
the method, derived from the discordance between the results obtained
by it and those before inferred, are not a whit clearer, clear and
convincing though they are, than are the indications afforded by their
discordance _inter se_. The distance derived from northern and southern
observations of the beginning of transit ought of course to be the
same as that derived from northern and southern observations of the
end of transit. If both sets of observations were exactly correct, the
agreement between the results would be exact. The discordance between
them could only be wide as a consequence of some serious imperfection
in this method of observing a transit. But the discordance is _very_
wide. The observations of the beginning of transit by the British
parties give a distance of the sun exceeding by rather more than a
million miles that deduced from the observations of the end of transit.
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