Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's EraVaknin, Samuel
History
Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's Era
Vaknin, Samuel
Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952-; Russia (Federation) -- Politics and government -- 1991-
Having failed thrice, Putin is lately leaning in favor of restoring and
even increasing the Federation Council's erstwhile powers at the
expense of the (incensed) Duma. Governors have sensed the changing
winds and have acted to trample over democratic institutions in their
regions. Thus, the Governor of Orenburg has abolished the direct
elections of mayors in his oblast. Russia's big business is moving in
as well in an attempt to elect its own mayors (for instance, in
Irkutsk).
Regional finances are in bad shape. Only 40 out 89 regions managed, by
February, to pay their civil servants their December 2001 salaries
(raised 89% - or 1.5% of GDP - by the benevolent president). Many
regions had to go deeper into deficit to do so. Salaries make three
quarters of regional budgets.
The East-West Institute reports that arrears have increased 10% in
January alone - to 33 billion rubles (c. $1 billion). The Finance
Ministry is considering to declare seven regions bankrupt. Yet another
committee, headed by Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration,
Dimitri Kozak, is on the verge of establishing an external
administration for insolvent regions. The recent housing reform - which
would force Russians to pay market prices for their apartments and
would subsidize the poor directly (rather than through the regional and
municipal authorities) - is likely to further weaken regional balance
sheets.
Luckily for Russia, the regions are less cantankerous and restive now.
The emphasis has shifted from narcissistic posturing to economic
survival and prosperity. The Moscow region still attracts the bulk of
Russian domestic and foreign investments, leaving the regions to make
do with leftovers.
Sergei Kirienko, a former short lived Prime Minister, and, currently
the president's envoy to the politically mighty Volga okrug, attributes
this gap, in a comment to Radio Free Europe, to non-harmonized business
legislation (between center and regions). Boris Nemtsov, a member of
the Duma (and former Deputy Prime Minister) thinks that the problem is
a "lack of democratic structures" - press freedom, civil society, and
democratic government. Others attribute the deficient interest to a
dearth of safety and safe institutions, propagated by entrenched
interest groups.
Small business is back in fashion after years of investments in
behemoths such as Gazprom and Lukoil. Politicians make small to medium
enterprises a staple of their speeches. The EBRD has revived its
moribund small business funds (and grants up to $125,000 loans to
eligible enterprises). Bank lending is still absent (together with a
banking system) - but foreign investment banks and retail banks are
making hesitant inroads into the regional markets. Small businessmen
are more assertive and often demonstrate against adverse tax laws, high
prices, and poor governance.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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