Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's EraVaknin, Samuel
History
Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's Era
Vaknin, Samuel
Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952-; Russia (Federation) -- Politics and government -- 1991-
"... farms in Moscow Province are more productive than farms in
equivalent locations in Ryazan Provinces, while farms closer to the
central city of either province do better than farms near the borders
of that province."
It seems that well-located farms enjoy advantages in attracting both
investments and skilled labour. They are also closer to their markets.
But the vicissitudes of Russia's agriculture are of geopolitical
consequence. A hungry Russia is often an angry Russia. Hence the food
aid provided by the USA in 1998-9 (worth more than $500 million and
coupled with soft PL-480 trade credits). The EU also donated a
comparable value in food. Russia asked for additional aid in the form
of animal feed in the years 2000-2001 - and the USA complied.
Russia's imports are an important prop to the economies of its
immediate and far neighbors. Russia is also a major importer of
American agricultural products, such as poultry (it consumes up to 40%
of all US exports of this commodity). It is a world class importer of
meat products (especially from the EU), its livestock inventory having
been halved by the transition. If it accedes to the WTO (negotiations
have been dragging on since 1995), it may become even more appealing
commercially.
It will have to reduce its import tariffs (the tariff on poultry is 30%
and the average tariff on agricultural products is 20%). It is also
likely to be forced to scale back - albeit gradually - the subsidies it
doles out to its own producers (10% of GDP in the USSR, less than 3% of
GDP now). Privileged trading by state entities will also be abolished
as will be non-tariff obstructions to imports. Whether the re-emergent
center will be able to impose its will on the recalcitrant agricultural
regions, still remains to be seen.
A series of apocalyptic economic crises forced Russian agriculture to
rationalize. Russia has no comparative advantage in livestock and meat
processing. Small wonder its imports of meat products skyrocketed. It
is questionable whether Russia possesses a comparative advantage in
agriculture as a whole - given its natural endowments, or, rather, the
lack thereof. Its insistence to produce its own food (especially the
High Value Products) has failed with disastrous consequences. Perhaps
it is time for Russia to concentrate on the things it does best.
Agriculture, alas, is not one of them.
Russia as a Creditor
By: Dr. Sam Vaknin
Also published by United Press International (UPI)
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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