Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's EraVaknin, Samuel
History
Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's Era
Vaknin, Samuel
Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952-; Russia (Federation) -- Politics and government -- 1991-
"Capital transferred abroad from Russia may represent such legal
activities as exports, or illegal sources. But it is impossible to
determine whether specific capital flows from Russia-legal or
illegal-come from a particular inflow, such as IMF loans or export
earnings. To put the scale of IMF lending to Russia into perspective,
Russia's exports of goods and services averaged about $80 billion a
year in recent years, which is over 25 times the average annual
disbursement from the IMF since 1992."
The Chechen Theatre Ticket
By: Dr. Sam Vaknin
Also published by United Press International (UPI)
One hundred and eighteen hostages and 50 of their captors died in the
heavy handed storming of the theatre occupied by Chechen terrorists
four days ago. This has been only the latest in a series of escalating
costs in a war officially terminated in 1997. On August 22, a
helicopter carrying 115 Russian servicemen and unauthorized civilians
went down in flames.
The Russian military is stretched to its limits. Munitions and spare
parts are in short supply. The defense industry shrunk violently
following the implosion of the USSR. Restarting production of
small-ticket items is prohibitively expensive. Even bigger weapon
systems are antiquated. A committee appointed by the Duma, Russia's
lower house of parliament, found that the average age of the army's
helicopters is 20. Russia lost dozens of them hitherto and does not
have the wherewithal to replace them.
The Russian command acknowledges 3000 fatalities and 8000 wounded but
the numbers are probably way higher. The Committee of Soldiers' Mothers
pegs the number of casualties at 12-13,000. Unpaid, disgruntled, and
under-supplied troops exert pressure on their headquarters to
air-strafe Chechnya, to withdraw, or to multiply the money budgeted to
support the ill-fated operation.
Russia maintains c. 100,000 troops in Chechnya, including 40,000 active
soldiers and 60,000 support and logistics personnel. The price tag is
sizable though not unsustainable. As early as October 1999, the IMF
told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "Yes, we're concerned that it
could undermine the progress in improving (Russia's) public finances."
As they did in the first Chechen conflict in 1994-6, both the IMF and
the World Bank reluctantly kept lending billions to Russia throughout
the current round of devastation. A $4.5 billion arrangement was signed
with Russia in July 1999. Though earmarked, funds are fungible. The IMF
has been accused by senior economists, such as Jeffrey Sachs and
Marshall Goldman, of financing the Russian war effort against the tiny
republic and its 1.5 million destitute or internally displaced
citizens. Even the staid Jane's World Armies concurred.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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