Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's EraVaknin, Samuel
History
Russian Roulette: Russia's Economy in Putin's Era
Vaknin, Samuel
Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952-; Russia (Federation) -- Politics and government -- 1991-
The U.S. Consul General in Vladivostok and the Senior Commercial
Officer in Moscow have announced that they will "lead an oil and gas
equipment and services and related construction sectors trade mission
to Sakhalin, Russia from March 11-13, 2002." The oil and gas fields in
Sakhalin attract 25% of all FDI in Russia and more than $35 billion in
additional investments is expected. Other regions of interest are the
Arctic and Eastern Siberia. Americans compete here with Japanese,
Korean, Royal Dutch/Shell, French, and Canadian firms, among others.
Even oil multinationals scorched in Russia's pre-Putin incarnation -
like British Petroleum which lost $200 million in Sidanco in 11 months
in 1997-8 - are back.
Takeovers of major Russian players (with their proven reserves) by
foreign oil firms are in the pipeline. Russian firms are seriously
undervalued - their shares being priced at one third to one tenth their
Western counterparts'. Some Russian oil firms (like Yukos and Sibneft)
have growth rates among the highest and production costs among the
lowest in the industry. The boards of the likes of Lukoil are packed
with American fund managers and British investment bankers.
The forthcoming liberalization of the natural gas market (the outcome
of an oft-heralded and much needed Gazprom divestiture) is a major
opportunity for new - possibly foreign - players.
This gold rush is the result of Russia's prominence as an oil producer,
second only to Saudi Arabia. Russia dumps on the world markets c. 4.5
million barrels daily (about 10% of the global trade in oil). It is the
world's largest exporter of natural gas (and has the largest known
natural gas reserves). It is also the world's second largest energy
consumer. In 1992, it produced 8 million bpd and consumed half as much.
In 2001, it produced 7 million bpd and consumed 2 million bpd.
Russia has c. 50 billion oil barrels in proven reserves but decrepit
exploration and extraction equipment, and a crumbling oil transport
infrastructure is in need of total replacement. More than 5% of oil
produced in Russia is stolen by tapping the leaking pipelines. An
unknown quantity is lost in oil spills and leakage. Transneft, the
state's oil pipelines monopoly, is committed to an ambitious plan to
construct new export pipelines to the Baltic and to China. The market
potential for Western equipment manufacturers, building contractors,
and oil firms is evidently there.
But this serendipity may be a curse in disguise. Russia is chronically
suffering from an oil glut induced by over-production, excess refining
capacity, and subsidized domestic prices (oil sold inside Russia costs
one third to one half the world price). Russian oil companies are
planning to increase production even further.
Rosneft, the eighth largest, plans to double its crude output. Yukos
(Russia's second largest oil firm) intends to increase output by 20%
this year. Surgut will raise its production by 14%.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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