Senescence, the Last Half of LifeHall, G. Stanley (Granville Stanley)
Science
Senescence, the Last Half of Life
Hall, G. Stanley (Granville Stanley)
Geriatrics
As to the population problem, Raymond Pearl has studied the ratio
between births and deaths in France, Prussia, Bavaria, and England and
Wales from 1913 to 1920[130] and finds that, in general, the birth
ratios rose during the war--in England to the 100 per cent mark--and
that immediately after the war was over the death-birth ratio began
to drop rapidly in all countries. Vienna suffered perhaps more than
any other city but made the best recovery, showing how promptly the
growth of population tends to regulate itself back toward the normal
after even so great a disturbance. Thus the war, which was the greatest
depopulator since the epidemic of the Middle Ages, caused “only a
momentary hesitation in the steady onward march of population growth.”
If we take any given land area of fixed limits, there must necessarily
be an upper limit to the number of people it can support, but this
limit will be approached asymtotically and the most rapid rise will be
midway between the upper and lower limit, namely, at that point where
half the possible resources of subsistence have been drawn upon and
utilized. The statistician must approach this problem as the astronomer
does in calculating the complete orbit of a comet, that is, he must
construct his curve from a limited number of specific data. If we study
the curve of growth of population in this country, we find that we
have long since passed the most rapid rate of increase. If we compare
this with that of France, which is an old country and much nearer the
upper limit than ours, which started near the lower asymtote only a
century and a half ago; or compare it with that of Serbia, which
is intermediate, all the statistics available conform with singular
accuracy to the theoretic curve.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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