Senescence, the Last Half of LifeHall, G. Stanley (Granville Stanley)
Science
Senescence, the Last Half of Life
Hall, G. Stanley (Granville Stanley)
Geriatrics
Professor Pearl concludes that this country has passed the point of
most rapid increase, that this rate began to decline about April 1,
1914, when our population was 98,637,000, and that our upper limit
will be reached about the year 2100, when the population will be
197,274,000 or nearly double what it is now, with about 66 persons
per square mile. Our population will be then far less dense than in
many other countries, but the latter are not self-supporting. He even
estimates how many calories, vegetable and animal, each individual will
require daily and compares this with the agricultural possibilities of
the future. Such considerations lead him to stress the importance of
birth control. This had long been practiced in France before the war,
where the birth- and death-rate nearly balanced, so that industrial
development simply raised the standard of living. Germany, on the other
hand, encouraged the increase of her population by every means and
her scheme was, when the pressure became too great, to facilitate the
overflow of her surplus population elsewhere. “A stationary population
where birth-rate and death-rate are made to balance is necessarily a
population with a relative excess of persons in the higher age groups,
not of much use as fighters, and a relative deficiency of persons in
the lower age groups where the best fighters are. On the contrary,
a people with a high birth-rate has a population with an excess of
persons in the younger age groups.”
In his discussion of life tables Pearl starts with that of Glover based
on the registration area of the United States in 1910. If we assume
an original hundred thousand starting together at birth we note that
at the beginning of the second year of life only 88,538 survive.
In the next year 2446 drop out; the year following, 1062. At forty
about 30,000 have passed away and the line descends with increasing
rapidity until about eighty, when it drops more slowly till soon after
the century mark all the original hundred thousand have passed away.
Expectation of life is the mean or average number of persons surviving
at a stated age. Pearl’s diagrams show that the expectation of life of
those born in Breslau in the seventeenth century was very much lower
than that of an individual born in the United States in 1910, the
difference amounting to 18 years. At the age of ten it has sunk to 12;
at twenty, to 10 years; at fifty, to 4. But the individual of eighty
in Breslau in the seventeenth century could expect to live longer than
the individual of the same age now in the United States. The same
result is found if we compare United States tables now with those of
England in the middle of the eighteenth century, where expectation was
also less before and greater after eighty. Pearson’s study of Egyptian
mummy cases two thousand years old shows that expectation there was far
lower yet through all the early stages of life, although after seventy
those who survived had a greatly increased expectation.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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