Next comes a period of depression, when we have low prices, low wages,
hard times, tight money, and many commercial failures. Many people who
lost all their money during the speculation period, become thrifty and
economize during the period of depression, and start in to save again.
Nearly everybody is pessimistic during this period. Trading on the Stock
Exchange is irregular and as a rule very light.
This is the time to get stock bargains, but the general public as a rule
doesn't take advantage of it. People are scared and think prices will go
still lower. The big interests accumulate stocks during this period, and
sell them during the period of prosperity.
CHAPTER XII.
THE MONEY MARKET AND STOCK PRICES
Perhaps no other one thing influences the movement of stock prices so
much, in a large way, as money conditions. It is impossible to have a
big bull market without plenty of money. During a bull market nearly all
stocks are bought on margin, which is explained in Chapter XVI. This
makes it necessary for brokers to borrow large sums of money. When money
is tight, it is impossible to get enough to carry on a large movement in
stocks.
You will see, therefore, that the Federal Reserve Bank has it in its
power to regulate the stock market to some extent. In 1919 speculation
was carried very much further than it should have been, but undoubtedly
it would have been much worse had the Federal Reserve Bank not raised
interest rates and urged member banks to withdraw money from Wall
Street. While there was considerable criticism of that action, it
certainly was a good thing for the entire country.
In a period of depression, the banks accumulate money, and there always
is an abundance of money at the beginning of a bull market. During a
period of prosperity the banks' reserves decrease and their loans
increase. When you see these reserves go down to a very low point, it is
usually time for you to sell your stocks.
CHAPTER XIII.
MINOR MOVEMENTS IN PRICES
Within the major movements of stock prices, there always are several
minor movements, which are caused by various influences. One of the
important causes is the technical condition of the market. Another cause
might be called a psychological one. When stocks are moving up steadily
in a bull market, people closely connected with the market expect a
reaction and watch for it. The newspapers predict it. Consequently,
there is sufficient let-up in buying to allow the pressure of selling by
the bears to bring it about. However, the desire to buy during reactions
is so general, many people rush in to buy and this buying, in addition
to the covering by the shorts, puts the market up again; and if
conditions are favorable for a bull market, prices will go up much
higher than they were before.
In like manner, we have rallies in bear markets. Of course the
professional bears sell during these rallies, with the expectation of
buying later at a cheaper price.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account