There can hardly exist any doubt that in nature there occur not only disintegrations, but also (perhaps in the interior of the stars) building-up processes in which compound nuclei result from simple ones. It is therefore natural to suppose that by exerting on hydrogen exceptional conditions of temperature, pressure, electrical changes, etc., we could succeed by experiments here on earth in forming helium from it with the development of considerable energy. But at the same time it is very likely that even under favourable circumstances such a process would take place with very great slowness, because the formation of a helium nucleus might well be a very infrequent occurrence; it would probably be the result of a certain succession of collisions between hydrogen nuclei and electrons, a combination whose probability of occurrence in a certain number of collisions is infinitely less than the probability of winning the largest prize in a lottery with the same number of chances. Nature has time enough to wait for “wins,” while mankind unfortunately has not. We know concerning the disintegration of the radioactive substances that it is of the character here indicated; of the great number of atoms to be found in a very small mass of a radioactive substance, now one explodes and now another. But why fortune should pick out one particular atom is as difficult to understand as why in a lottery one particular number should prove to be the lucky one rather than any other. Our only understanding of the whole matter rests on the law of averages, or probability as we may call it. We know that of a billion radium atoms (10¹²) on the average thirteen explode every second; and even if in any single collection of a billion a few more or a few less may explode, the average of thirteen per second per billion will always be maintained in dealing with larger and larger numbers of atoms, as, for example, with a thousand billion or a million billion. For other radioactive substances we get wholly different averages for the number of atoms disintegrating per second; but in no case are we able to penetrate into the inner character of the process of disintegration itself. And what holds true of the radioactive substances will also hold true probably for elemental changes of all kinds; Rutherford with his hundreds of thousands of α-particle projectiles was able to make sure of but a few lucky “shots.” The whole matter must at this stage be looked upon as governed wholly by chance.