The Belgian Curtain: Europe after CommunismVaknin, Samuel
History
The Belgian Curtain: Europe after Communism
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe -- Politics and government -- 1989-; Post-communism -- Europe
The EU responded by feebly attempting to counter this worrisome
imbalance of influence with a Common Foreign and Security Policy and a
rapid deployment force. Still, NATO's chances of replacing the EU as
the main continental political alliance are much higher than the EU's
chances of substituting for NATO as the pre-eminent European military
pact. the EU is hobbled by minuscule and decreasing defense spending by
its mostly pacifistic members and by the backwardness of their armed
forces.
That NATO, under America's thumb, and the vaguely anti-American EU are
at cross-purposes emerged during the recent spat over the International
Criminal Court. Countries, such as Romania, were asked to choose
between NATO's position - immunity for American soldiers on
international peacekeeping missions - and the EU's (no such thing).
Finally - and typically - the EU backed down. But it was a close call
and it cast in sharp relief the tensions inside the Atlantic
partnership.
As far as the sole superpower is concerned, the strategic importance of
western Europe has waned together with the threat posed by a
dilapidated Russia. Both south Europe and its northern regions are
emerging as pivotal. Airbases in Bulgaria are more useful in the fight
against Iraq than airbases in Germany.
The affairs of Bosnia - with its al-Qaida's presence - are more
pressing than those of France. Turkey and its borders with central Asia
and the middle east is of far more concern to the USA than
disintegrating Belgium. Russia, a potentially newfound ally, is more
mission-critical than grumpy Germany.
Thus, enlargement would serve to enhance the dwindling strategic
relevance of the EU and heal some of the multiple rifts with the USA -
on trade, international affairs (e.g., Israel), defense policy, and
international law. But this is not the only benefit the EU would derive
from its embrace of the former lands of communism.
Faced with an inexorably ageing populace and an unsustainable system of
social welfare and retirement benefits, the EU is in dire need of young
immigrants. According to the United Nations Population Division, the EU
would need to import 1.6 million migrant workers annually to maintain
its current level of working age population. But it would need to
absorb almost 14 million new, working age, immigrants per year just to
preserve a stable ratio of workers to pensioners.
Eastern Europe - and especially central Europe - is the EU's natural
reservoir of migrant labor. It is ironic that xenophobic and
anti-immigration parties hold the balance of power in a continent so
dependent on immigration for the survival of its way of life and
institutions.
The internal, common, market of the EU has matured. Its growth rate has
leveled off and it has developed a mild case of deflation. In previous
centuries, Europe exported its excess labor and surplus capacity to its
colonies - an economic system known as "mercantilism".
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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