The Belgian Curtain: Europe after CommunismVaknin, Samuel
History
The Belgian Curtain: Europe after Communism
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe -- Politics and government -- 1989-; Post-communism -- Europe
As the Union enlarges to the east and south, its character will be
transformed. It will become poorer and darker, more prone to crime and
corruption, to sudden or seasonal surges of immigration, to
fractiousness and conflict. It is a process of conversion to a truly
multi-ethnic and multi-cultural grouping with a weighty Slav and
Christian Orthodox presence. Not necessarily an appetizing prospect,
say many.
The former communist countries in transition are supposed to be
miraculously transformed by the accession process. Alas, the indelible
pathologies of communism mesh well with Brussels's unmanageable,
self-perpetuating and opaque bureaucracy. These mutually-enhancing
propensities are likely to yield a giant and venal welfare state with a
class of aged citizens in the core countries of the European Union
living off the toil of young, mostly Slav, laborers in its eastern
territories. This is the irony: the European Union is doomed without
enlargement. It needs these countries far more than they need it.
The strategic importance of western Europe has waned together with the
threat posed by a dilapidated Russia. Both south Europe and its
northern regions are emerging as pivotal. Enlargement would serve to
enhance the dwindling geopolitical relevance of the EU and heal some of
the multiple rifts with the USA.
But the main benefits are economic.
Faced with an inexorably ageing populace and an unsustainable system of
social welfare and retirement benefits, the EU is in dire need of young
immigrants. According to the United Nations Population Division, the EU
would need to import 1.6 million migrant workers annually to maintain
its current level of working age population. But it would need to
absorb almost 14 million new, working age, immigrants per year just to
preserve a stable ratio of workers to pensioners.
Eastern Europe - and especially central Europe - is the EU's natural
reservoir of migrant labor. It is ironic that xenophobic and
anti-immigration parties hold the balance of power in a continent so
dependent on immigration for the survival of its way of life and
institutions.
The internal, common, market of the EU has matured. Its growth rate has
leveled off and it has developed a mild case of deflation. In previous
centuries, Europe exported its excess labor and surplus capacity to its
colonies - an economic system known as "mercantilism".
The markets of central, southern, and eastern Europe - West Europe's
hinterland - are replete with abundant raw materials and dirt-cheap,
though well-educated, labor. As indigenous purchasing power increases,
the demand for consumer goods and services will expand. Thus, the
enlargement candidates can act both as a sink for Europe's production
and the root of its competitive advantage.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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