The general tension during the last few days of July brought to my mind a conversation I had had with Colonel Trench, our former Military Attaché in Berlin, in the summer of 1912, the memory of which did not serve to minimize my growing uneasiness. I had, at the time, just read works by Bernhardi and Naumann, in which the question of Germany's future is argued in the frankest possible manner; in so frank a manner, indeed, and with so little attempt at concealment, that both authors had been classed by outside critics as hot-heads and fire-brands, in the belief that they, like others of similar tendencies, were unsupported by the more level-headed and responsible leaders of German policy. Some colour was lent to this view by articles appearing simultaneously in the German Press, specially written, as the sequel revealed, for foreign consumption, setting forth that this militant school was led by extremists who should not be taken seriously. Now, Colonel Trench had had unusual opportunities of weighing in the balance the value of the influence exercised by these so-called "extremists." His linguistic accomplishments and attractive personality had made him a _persona grata_ at the German Court, and had given him ample facilities for approaching men of every cast of thought. He had, moreover, seen service in South Africa with the German Expeditionary Force during the Herero campaign, and had thus obtained a near view of the German military machine and German methods of thought. I, therefore, seized the opportunity of sounding him on the subject of Bernhardi and similar authors, and asked whether they represented in his opinion an extremist, or general, view of thought in Germany. He replied that the views they held were now the common property of all the thinking portion of the community, and even of the great majority of their countrymen, whether articulate or inarticulate. Their very bluntness had led to their being discounted abroad, but none the less Germany practically throughout had been inoculated with the microbe of world-dominion madness and stood solid behind the Military Party. He then added what, at the time, seemed a very bold statement. He said: "You will see that we shall be at war with Germany not later than September, 1914. The Germans have fixed on that date as the most favourable for their purposes. By then their final preparations will be completed, and they cannot or will not wait, for were they to do so they would be giving time to Russia to complete the strategic railways she has in contemplation, and they are determined to forestall her railway programme."