8. In conclusion, we may admit, fully, with Colonel Maurice, to whom we owe a great deal for setting this matter of the probabilities of the case in its true light, that Napoleon’s estimate of the probabilities was a correct one. He was quite warranted under all the circumstances in believing that the Prussians had retired towards their base. Nevertheless, this belief does not justify him for having neglected to ascertain the facts by a prompt exploration of the whole region through which the Prussians could have retreated. The lesson which this neglect teaches, is a plain one. It is, that where there is any chance at all of the occurrence of an event, which, if it does happen, will be fatal, it is folly to trust to the probabilities of the case; every precaution should be taken; nothing that can avert a fatal calamity should be neglected, no matter how small may appear to be the chance of its happening. In this case, we find Napoleon, at one o’clock in the afternoon of the day after the battle of Ligny, entirely ignorant of the whereabouts and intentions of the Prussians, and, in fact, alarmed lest they should be intending to unite with the English, whom he is expecting to fight the next day; obliged to go off himself to join his left wing, and to leave the all-important task of preventing the union of his adversaries to a newly-made Marshal, in whose abilities he cannot place very great confidence. And all this, because he did not have the facts as to the Prussian retreat ascertained at day-break. FOOTNOTES: [494] Charras, vol. 1, p. 233. [495] Clausewitz, ch. 37, p. 95. [496] Clausewitz, ch. 37, p. 93. [497] The Memoirs are exceedingly unsatisfactory in regard to this part of the campaign. Napoleon evidently had no exact recollection of the order which he dictated to Bertrand. He was only sure that he gave Grouchy an intimation that he might need him. See App. A; _post_, p. 351. [498] Very possibly Grouchy did tell “the simple truth” in his account of the interview between himself and the Emperor. The trouble with Grouchy was, that he did not tell “the whole truth.” He denied having received any written order. [499] Clausewitz, ch. 48, p. 130. [500] Chesney, p. 152. [501] Maurice, pp. 73, 74: April, 1890. [502] These are the verbal orders. [503] The italics are our own. [504] Hamley, Op. of War, p. 190. He also cites the verbal orders. [505] Ib., pp. 196-198.