The conquest of cancerWright, H. W. S. (Henry Wardel Snarey)
Science
The conquest of cancer
Wright, H. W. S. (Henry Wardel Snarey)
Cancer
There is perhaps one more question that may be touched upon: that of
the so-called _increase_ of cancer. It is commonly stated that cancer
is increasing: it is as commonly asked if this is really so. As a
matter of fact, the question (which we are usually told can be only
answered by statisticians) is one that statisticians can only answer
when we have agreed what they are to understand by it. And that is not
so easy as may be at first thought.
It is certainly true that, in the British Isles, the number of
deaths certified each year as due to cancer of one form or another
is gradually and steadily increasing, both absolutely and relatively
to the population. But then we have in the first place, to consider
whether cancer is not diagnosed more frequently in ratio to the cases
seen than was formerly the case, and, in the second, to remember that
cancer is, on the whole, a disease suffered during the second half of
life. Now, our population is an older one than it was: the birth-rate
is falling: so many youths who would now be vigorous men of thirty-five
to forty lost their lives in the war; and lives are, on the whole,
longer than they were, owing to a diminishing liability to suffer from
certain ailments other than Cancer.
Supposing that children ceased to be born, at the same time that the
Ministry of Health succeeded in “abolishing” all diseases except
cancer, and the Home Office and Police reduced the probability of death
from accident, from homicide, and from suicide, to vanishing point.
Would we not then all die from either “old age” or from “cancer”? If
so; should we be justified in declaring that cancer had “enormously
increased” since the successful institution of control of our own
deaths and other peoples’ births?
We are, indeed, again confronted with the old problem of the one and
the many, under one of its numberless aspects. From the point of view
of the statistical bureaucrat, cancer is increasing. That is to say, an
increasing number of deaths, and an increasing proportion of deaths,
are every year presented to him, both absolutely and in relation to
the population. And so many more perforated cards are in consequence
manipulated by his counting machine.
Can it be said that, for any one reader of these pages, the chances of
death from cancer are year by year increasing, as are the chances of
being run over in the London streets? Who can say?
But this is true. We must all die. We are, for the most part, anxious
to postpone the day of death, and many of us dread, more than aught
else, a death from cancer.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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