Transcriber’s Notes: Underscores “_” before and after a word or phrase indicate _italics_ in the original text. Small capitals have been converted to SOLID capitals. Illustrations have been moved so they do not break up paragraphs. Typographical and punctuation errors have been silently corrected. The Cycles of Speculation BY Thomas Gibson [Illustration] Published by The Moody Corporation 35 Nassau Street, New York 1907 Copyright 1907, by THE MOODY CORPORATION All rights reserved THE MOODY-BARTON PRESS, ELIZABETH, N. J. CONTENTS Part I Chapter Page I. Introduction 5 II. The Cycles of Speculation 21 III. The Gold Supply 37 IV. Money 59 V. Political Influences, Crops, Etc. 77 Part II VI. Puts and Calls 89 VII. The Question of Dividends 101 Basing Railroad Values 104 Effects of Business Depression 105 Undigested Securities 108 How to Compute the Value of Rights 109 Barometer of Averages 110 Best Method of Trading 111 Indication of Crises 112 The Ordinary Swing of Prices 113 The Factor of Safety 114 Borrowing and Lending Stock 117 Scalping 120 Crop Damage 123 Selection of Securities 124 The Bank Statement 125 The Cycles of Stock Speculation 133 The Cycles of Grain Speculation 145 The Cycles of Cotton Speculation 155 Conclusion 163 Bibliography 176 The successful speculator requires four things: 1--A knowledge of values. 2--A knowledge of general conditions. 3--A knowledge of the machinery of speculation--and 4--Something besides. I Introduction