There is much difference of opinion among writers and students of
economics as to the cause of depressions. Bagehot attributes it to
the fact that, “at particular times a great many stupid people have a
great deal of stupid money.” This writer contends that occasionally
money accumulates abnormally and craves an investment outlet. To use
his own words, “This blind capital seeks for some one to devour it,
and there is plethora; it finds some one, and there is speculation; it
is devoured, and there is a panic.” Horace White attributes panics to
over-speculation. Bonamy Price says: “A vast outlay in new enterprises
involving a large consumption of food and materials, whether in the way
of pure waste or temporary unproductiveness, ought always to suggest a
feeling of danger. This excess occurs in seasons of prosperity.” John
B. Clark holds that it is due to an excess of production; or an excess
of production in one line with a deficiency in others. Leone Levi:
“The main cause for the occurrence of crises is the sudden realization
of an insufficiency of capital to meet present demands.” Thorold
Rogers says: “The cause exists in the function of exchange; in the
expectation of unreasonable profits and in incorrect calculation.” It
was the late Henry George’s theory that depressions are brought about
by higher prices of land. He held that workers thrive as they have easy
access to natural opportunities for production, and are impoverished
as they are deprived of such opportunities. All periods of speculation
and inflation end in higher land values. Landlords call for a larger
percentage of the product than workers can afford to pay, and both
labor and capital become idle until there is a readjustment. Prof. W.
S. Jevons, and a host of others, attribute crises to sun spots and
their effects on harvests. And so on through a long line of theories.
The consensus of opinion appears to favor the theory of
over-speculation, whether in realty, commodities, or the shares of
corporations, and this leads up to the question of periodicity. That
there has been a recurrence of these troubles about once in ten years
is not a debatable question. Nevertheless, many thinkers scout the
idea of this repetition at marked periods being other than fortuitous.
As prominent a student as Thorold Rogers, for example, ridicules the
theory of periodicity. Many hopeful people believe that in time we will
find means to avoid these bad spots; that the United States is a young
and enthusiastic country, and that we will gradually sober down in both
methods and effects. But against this theory lies the cold fact that
these cycles have occurred with as charming regularity in France and
England as they have in our own country, which would indicate that age
and seasoning does not produce any appreciable improvement.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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