This phase of the subject will be dismissed with a few words. If the
contentions already made are accepted, it is apparent that all such
commodities will gradually seek a higher level. A brief examination
of statistics will show that this readjustment has been going on for
years. The gradually ascending pivotal point, or average price, is
particularly marked in the cheaper cereals,--corn and oats, and also in
cotton. This is probably due to the fact that wages have not advanced
as rapidly as have prices of living. It is found that in periods of
hard times consumption of cheaper foodstuffs and textile fabrics
is increased, while the consumption of higher priced commodities
and luxuries are curtailed. The wage-earner, therefore, has been
in reality living in a regime of hard times, although this fact is
easily submerged by steadier employment, by a fictitious appearance
of general prosperity, and the ability to spend a larger number of
dollars, without realizing fully the loss of purchasing power in the
dollars.
It would be out of the question to attempt to enter anything like
a comprehensive study of the question of gold production and its
effects in a single chapter, or even in a single volume; neither is it
necessary to the purposes of this work, for the student who desires
a comprehensive education in this regard will find ample means and
material ready to his hand. From the standpoint of investment and
speculation alone, it is submitted that increasing production of gold
is, to use the phraseology of the street, bearish on long time bonds
and other securities yielding a limited rate of interest or income,
temporarily bearish on railroad stocks, bullish on industrial shares,
except as noted, and bullish on speculative commodities.
At the risk of indulging in undue reiteration, attention will again be
called to the fallacy of considering such subjects as the one of gold
production too remote in concrete effects, or too sluggish in operation
to be of importance to the speculator. A thorough understanding of
cause and effect bears upon the operations of today, in that it
anticipates the results of tomorrow. Through knowledge of influences of
this character, serious error may be avoided. For example, one of the
profound axioms of the speculative world is that bonds advance first
and stocks afterwards. If we understand _why_ bonds have been, and are
at present, declining we may be justified in modifying this view and
considering the axiom more or less obsolete. He who operates an engine
without a clear understanding of its motive power is likely to get into
trouble, or perhaps be blown up.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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