The Discovery of the FutureWells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Philosophy
The Discovery of the Future
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Civilization -- Philosophy; Forecasting; History -- Philosophy; Time
But before pointing out how divergent these two types or habits of
mind really are, it is necessary to meet a possible objection to what
has been said. I may put that objection in this form: Is not this
distinction between a type of mind that thinks of the past and a type
of mind that thinks of the future a sort of hair-splitting, almost like
distinguishing between people who have left hands and people who have
right? Everybody believes that the present is entirely determined by
the past, you say; but then everybody believes also that the present
determines the future. Are we simply separating and contrasting two
sides of everybody's opinion? To which one replies that we are not
discussing what we know and believe about the relations of past,
present, and future, or of the relation of cause and effect to each
other in time. We all know the present depends for its causes on the
past, and the future depends for its causes upon the present. But this
discussion concerns the way in which we approach things upon this
common ground of knowledge and belief. We may all know there is an
east and a west, but if some of us always approach and look at things
from the west, if some of us always approach and look at things from
the east, and if others again wander about with a pretty disregard of
direction, looking at things as chance determines, some of us will get
to a westward conclusion of this journey, and some of us will get to an
eastward conclusion, and some of us will get to no definite conclusion
at all about all sorts of important matters. And yet those who are
travelling east, and those who are travelling west, and those who are
wandering haphazard, may be all upon the same ground of belief and
statement and amid the same assembly of proven facts. Precisely the same
thing, divergence of result, will happen if you always approach things
from the point of view of their causes, or if you approach them always
with a view to their probable effects. And in several very important
groups of human affairs it is possible to show quite clearly just how
widely apart the two methods, pursued each in its purity, take those who
follow them.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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