The Discovery of the FutureWells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Philosophy
The Discovery of the Future
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Civilization -- Philosophy; Forecasting; History -- Philosophy; Time
Many people believe, therefore, that there can be no sort of certainty
about the future. You can know no more about the future, I was
recently assured by a friend, than you can know which way a kitten will
jump next. And to all who hold that view, who regard the future as a
perpetual source of convulsive surprises, as an impenetrable, incurable,
perpetual blankness, it is right and reasonable to derive such values as
it is necessary to attach to things from the events that have certainly
happened with regard to them. It is our ignorance of the future and our
persuasion that that ignorance is absolutely incurable that alone gives
the past its enormous predominance in our thoughts. But through the
ages, the long unbroken succession of fortune-tellers--and they flourish
still--witnesses to the perpetually smoldering feeling that after all
there may be a better sort of knowledge--a more serviceable sort of
knowledge than that we now possess.
On the whole there is something sympathetic for the dupe of the
fortune-teller in the spirit of modern science; it is one of the
persuasions that come into one's mind, as one assimilates the broad
conception of science, that the adequacy of causation is universal; that
in absolute fact--if not in that little bubble of relative fact which
constitutes the individual life--in absolute fact the future is just as
fixed and determinate, just as settled and inevitable, just as possible
a matter of knowledge as the past. Our personal memory gives us an
impression of the superior reality and trustworthiness of things in the
past, as of things that have finally committed themselves and said their
say, but the more clearly we master the leading conceptions of science
the better we understand that this impression is one of the results of
the peculiar conditions of our lives, and not an absolute truth. The man
of science comes to believe at last that the events of the year A.D.
4000 are as fixed, settled, and unchangeable as the events of the year
1600. Only about the latter he has some material for belief and about
the former practically none.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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