In clearing away the useless popular notions, the scientists
themselves have not been free from their influence, especially when
they seemed to agree with accepted scientific theory. Many, indeed,
are the 'coons in poultry science that have been seen because they
were being looked for.
As a partial explanation it should be said that men available for
scientific poultry work are very scarce. Poultry keepers schooled in
the University of the Poultry Yard have no conception of scientific
methods, and would explain experimental results by a theory that
would fail to fit elsewhere. The available scientists on the other
hand are seldom poultrymen.
Among the first men to take up animal husbandry work of all kinds,
were the veterinarians. For years the only poultry publications put
out by the U.S. Government were by veterinarians. These dust covered
volumes with their five color plates of the fifty-seven varieties of
tapeworms, still rest on the shelves of public libraries, a monument
to the time when the practical poultryman knew only things that
weren't so, and the scientific poultryman knew only things that were
useless.
The first general law that all experimenters should know and the
ignorance of which has caused and still causes the waste of the
major portion of experimental brains and money, we will call the
"Law of Chance." Let the reader who is not familiar with such things
take two pennies and toss them upon the table. They are both heads
up. He tosses them again, one comes heads, the other tails. The
third time repeats the second. The fourth both come tails. The law
of chance says this is correct. Heads should appear 25 per cent.,
tails 25 per cent., and mixed 50 per cent. of the time. Now let the
reader try this in a lot of twelve tosses. Does it prove the law?
Try it again. Are all lots alike? Now pitch a hundred times, then
pitch pennies all day. By night the law will be so near proven that
the experimenter will be willing to concede its validity.
Now suppose the lots of twelve tosses, each were lots of twelve
hens, one Plymouth Rocks, the other Wyandottes, or one fed corn and
the other wheat. The law of chance clearly proves that the larger
number of unites, the nearer the theoretical truths will be the
experimental results. Note, however, that small lots may by chance
be as near the truth as large lots.
In practice two grave errors are made: First, conclusions are drawn
from small lots compared with each other; second, conclusions are
drawn from large lots compared with small lots. In the first case
both may be off; in the latter case the small one may be off.
Examples of the first error are to be found in the scores of
contradicting breed and feed tests, that were published in the early
days of poultry research. The second error is exemplified in the
Ontario experiments in incubation, to which reference has already
been made.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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