Here is a further example of this error. From the fifth egg laying
competition at the Hawkesbury Agricultural College in Australia, I
copy the following:
No. of Hens. Variety. Ave. Egg Yield.
6 Cuckoo Leghorn 190.16
30 S.C. Brown Leghorn 177.00
138 S.C. White Leghorn 174.93
12 R.C. Brown Leghorn 173.50
12 R.C. White Leghorn 172.66
18 Buff Leghorn 160.55
6 Black Leghorn 138.33
The ranking of Cuckoo Leghorns as first is a chance happening due to
the small number; likewise the Black Leghorns had a streak of bad
luck and received lowest place. To one not familiar with such work,
the real significance of the table is that the S.C.W. Leghorns did
the best work. A totaling of all other varieties gives 84 fowls with
an average egg production of 170.5, which bears out the conclusion.
As these birds were all kept in pens of six, we would expect to find
the highest single pen to be White Leghorns, because, when compared
with all other Leghorns, they have both the highest average and the
greatest number. This accords with the fact that as the highest
single pen is found to be White Leghorns with an egg yield of 239
eggs.
The above illustrates another important phase of the laws of chance,
which says that not only is the average likely to be nearer the
theoretical average sought when the number is increased, but that
the individual extremes will be more removed.
Important Experimental Results at the Illinois Station.
From an Illinois Experiment Station report, the following is quoted:
"The stock used was Barred Plymouth Rock pullets. These pullets were
a very uniform Barred Rock stock that had been bred as an individual
strain for many years. They were practically the same age, and
except for the factors mentioned were treated as uniformly as
possible.
First Year's Results.
No. Hens. Diet. Ave. Egg Yield.
10 Nitrogenous Diet 132.9
10 Carbonaceous Diet 128.4
10 Wet Wash 155.8
10 Dry Wash 111.4
"The results of the first test are somewhat surprising for it is
generally believed that the nitrogenous diet is best for laying
hens. The difference indicated in the first year's results was so
light that it was decided to repeat the experiment the second year.
"As the wet wash is clearly proven to be superior, these hens were
used the second year to compare meat meal with fresh cut bone.
Second Year's Result.
No. Hens. Diet. Ave. Egg Yield.
10 Nitrogenous 142.2
10 Carbonaceous 134.5
10 Meat Meal 102.2
10 Green Cut Bone 128.9
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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