The Earth's BeginningBall, Robert S. (Robert Stawell)
Science
The Earth's Beginning
Ball, Robert S. (Robert Stawell)
Krakatoa (Indonesia); Nebular hypothesis
We may illustrate this remarkable coincidence in the following manner:
Suppose we take ten coins in the hand, and toss them all up together and
let them fall on the table; in the vast majority of cases in which the
experiment may be tried, there would be some heads and some tails; they
would not all be heads. But it is, of course, not impossible that the
coins should all turn up heads. We should, however, deem it a very
remarkable circumstance if it happened: yet it would certainly not be
more remarkable than that the ten celestial movements should all take
place in the same direction, unless, indeed, it should turn out that
there is some sound physical cause which imposes on the planets of the
solar system an obligation, restricting their movements round the sun to
the same direction as that in which the sun itself rotates.
It will be useful to study the matter numerically; and the rules of
probabilities will enable us to do so, as we may see by the following
illustration: We deem the captain of a cricket team fortunate when he
wins the toss for innings. We should deem him lucky indeed if he won it
three times in successive matches. If he won it five times running, his
luck would be phenomenal; while, if it was stated that he won it ten
times consecutively, we should consider the statement well-nigh
incredible. For it is easy to calculate that the chances against such an
occurrence are one thousand and twenty-four to one. In like manner we
may say, that for nine planets and the sun all to go round in the same
direction would be indeed surprising if the arrangement of the planets
had been determined by chance; there are more than a thousand chances to
one against such an occurrence.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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