The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
[148] One of the moat striking and symptomatic difficulties
which faced the Allied authorities in their administration of the
occupied areas of Germany during the Armistice arose out of the fact
that even when they brought food into the country the inhabitants could
not afford to pay its cost price.
[149] Theoretically an unduly low level of home prices should
stimulate exports and so cure itself. But in Germany, and still more in
Poland and Austria, there is little or nothing to export. There must be
imports _before_ there can be exports.
[150] Allowing for the diminished value of gold, the exchange
value of the franc should be less than 40 per cent of its previous
value, instead of the actual figure of about 60 per cent, if the fall
were proportional to the increase in the volume of the currency.
[151] How very far from equilibrium France's international
exchange now is can be seen from the following table:
Excess of
Monthly Imports Exports Imports
Average $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
1913 140,355 114,670 25,685
1914 106,705 81,145 25,560
1918 331,915 69,055 262,860
Jan.-Mar. 1919 387,140 66,670 320,470
Apr.-June 1919 421,410 83,895 337,515
July 1919 467,565 123,675 343,890
These figures have been converted, at approximately par rates, but this
is roughly compensated by the fact that the trade of 1918 and 1919 has
been valued at 1917 official rates. French imports cannot possibly
continue at anything approaching these figures, and the semblance of
prosperity based on such a state of affairs is spurious.
[152] The figures for Italy are as follows:
Excess of
Monthly Imports Exports Imports
Average $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
1913 60,760 41,860 18,900
1914 48,720 36,840 11,880
1918 235,025 41,390 193,635
Jan.-Mar. 1919 229,240 38,685 191,155
Apr.-June 1919 331,035 69,250 261,785
July-Aug. 1919 223,535 84,515 139,020
[153] In the last two returns of the Bank of France available
as I write (Oct. 2 and 9, 1919) the increases in the note issue on the
week amounted to $93,750,000 and $94,125,000 respectively.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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