The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
There remain the claims of Italy, Serbia, and Roumania for damage by
invasion and of these and other countries, as for example Greece,[93]
for losses at sea. I will assume for the present argument that these
claims rank against Germany, even when they were directly caused not by
her but by her allies; but that it is not proposed to enter any such
claims on behalf of Russia.[94] Italy's losses by invasion and at sea
cannot be very heavy, and a figure of from $250,000,000 to $500,000,000
would be fully adequate to cover them. The losses of Serbia, although
from a human point of view her sufferings were the greatest of all,[95]
are not measured _pecuniarily_ by very great figures, on account of her
low economic development. Dr. Stamp (_loc. cit._) quotes an estimate by
the Italian statistician Maroi, which puts the national wealth of Serbia
at $2,400,000,000 or $525 per head,[96] and the greater part of this
would be represented by land which has sustained no permanent
damage.[97] In view of the very inadequate data for guessing at more
than the _general magnitude_ of the legitimate claims of this group of
countries, I prefer to make one guess rather than several and to put the
figure for the whole group at the round sum of $1,250,000,000.
We are finally left with the following--
Belgium $ 2,500,000,000[98]
France 4,000,000,000
Great Britain 2,850,000,000
Other Allies 1,250,000,000
---------------
Total $10,600,000,000
I need not impress on the reader that there is much guesswork in the
above, and the figure for France in particular is likely to be
criticized. But I feel some confidence that the _general magnitude_, as
distinct from the precise figures, is not hopelessly erroneous; and this
may be expressed by the statement that a claim against Germany, based on
the interpretation of the pre-Armistice engagements of the Allied
Powers which is adopted above, would assuredly be found to exceed
$8,000,000,000 and to fall short of $15,000,000,000.
This is the amount of the claim which we were entitled to present to the
enemy. For reasons which will appear more fully later on, I believe that
it would have been a wise and just act to have asked the German
Government at the Peace Negotiations to agree to a sum of
$10,000,000,000 in final settlement, without further examination of
particulars. This would have provided an immediate and certain solution,
and would have required from Germany a sum which, if she were granted
certain indulgences, it might not have proved entirely impossible for
her to pay. This sum should have been divided up amongst the Allies
themselves on a basis of need and general equity.
But the question was not settled on its merits.
II. _The Conference and the Terms of the Treaty_
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account