The Economic Consequences of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Economic history -- 1918-1945; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects
2. In addition to the early payment in cash or kind of a sum of
$5,000,000,000, Germany is required to deliver bearer bonds to a further
amount of $10,000,000,000, or, in the event of the payments in cash or
kind before May 1, 1921, available for Reparation, falling short of
$5,000,000,000 by reason of the permitted deductions, to such further
amount as shall bring the total payments by Germany in cash, kind, and
bearer bonds up to May 1, 1921, to a figure of $15,000,000,000
altogether.[112] These bearer bonds carry interest at 2-1/2 per cent per
annum from 1921 to 1925, and at 5 per cent _plus_ 1 per cent for
amortization thereafter. Assuming, therefore, that Germany is not able
to provide any appreciable surplus towards Reparation before 1921, she
will have to find a sum of $375,000,000 annually from 1921 to 1925, and
$900,000,000 annually thereafter.[113]
3. As soon as the Reparation Commission is satisfied that Germany can do
better than this, 5 per cent bearer bonds are to be issued for a further
$10,000,000,000, the rate of amortization being determined by the
Commission hereafter. This would bring the annual payment to
$1,400,000,000 without allowing anything for the discharge of the
capital of the last $10,000,000,000.
4. Germany's liability, however, is not limited to $25,000,000,000, and
the Reparation Commission is to demand further instalments of bearer
bonds until the total enemy liability under Annex I. has been provided
for. On the basis of my estimate of $40,000,000,000 for the total
liability, which is more likely to be criticized as being too low than
as being too high, the amount of this balance will be $15,000,000,000.
Assuming interest at 5 per cent, this will raise the annual payment to
$2,150,000,000 without allowance for amortization.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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