The tendency of evolution to-day is to effect a decline in the
birth-rate. In the future far more attention will be paid, than has
been paid in the past, to the demand of social hygiene that potential
parents shall be careful to procreate healthy children only. On
the other hand, the knowledge that will enable parents to prevent
undesired conceptions will become more and more widely diffused. In
times to come, an ever-increasing proportion of pregnancies will be
deliberately willed.
The decline in the birth-rate will necessarily result in a decline in
the death-rate, and more especially in a decline in the death-rate of
infants and children. Ultimately, we shall see a decline, not merely
in the birth-rate and the death-rate, but also in the difference
between the total number of the births and of the deaths. It is
beyond dispute that these figures are tending to become less variable
and more constant than they were in former times.
CHAPTER II
STATISTICAL PROBLEMS OF POPULATION
_Miscarriages, Premature Births, and Still-Births._--The statistical
data regarding miscarriages, premature births, and still-births
are somewhat untrustworthy. There is no general agreement as
to the precise signification of these terms among the medical
practitioners, coroners, and registrars of any one country--not to
speak of differences in these matters in different countries; and
this difficulty applies above all to the matter of still-births. In
some countries, children dying during the act of birth or within a
few hours after birth are regarded as born alive, but in others as
still-born. When we are comparing the birth-rate and the death-rate
in different countries, these causes of error must not be forgotten.
In the twentieth century, in the civilised countries of Europe, the
premature births vary between 5 and 9 per cent., and the still-births
between 3 and 4 per cent., of all births. For every 100 still-born
girls there are approximately 130 still-born boys. Among the lower
classes of the population, still-births are more frequent than among
the upper classes. Within the same class, such births are more
frequent among those living in unfavourable conditions than among
those more favourably situated; and in manufacturing towns they are
more frequent than in agricultural districts. The proportion is
affected by the age of the mother, and still-births are at a minimum
among mothers at ages from 20 to 25 years. In the course of time,
notwithstanding the gigantic development of manufacturing industry,
and in spite of the more accurate registration of still-births, the
proportion of such births has diminished; the principal reason for
this is the advance in medical science.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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