We can calculate how much warning we should have of the coming
catastrophe. The Sun with its retinue is speeding through space at
the rate of eleven miles a second toward a point near the bright star
Vega. Since the tramp would probably also be in motion with a speed
comparable with our own, it might hit us coming from any point in
space, the likelihood depending upon the direction and amount of its
own speed. So that at the present moment such a body may be in any
part of the sky. But the chances are greatest if it be coming from the
direction toward which the sun is travelling, since it would then be
approaching us head on. If it were travelling itself as fast as the
Sun, its relative speed of approach would be twenty-two miles a second.
The previousness of the warning would depend upon the stranger’s size.
The warning would be long according as the stranger was large. Let
us assume it the mass of the Sun, a most probable supposition. Being
dark, it must have cooled to a solid, and its density therefore be much
greater than the Sun’s, probably something like eight times as great,
giving it a diameter about half his or four hundred and thirty thousand
miles. Its apparent brightness would depend both upon its distance and
upon its intrinsic brightness or albedo, and this last would itself
vary according to its distance from the Sun. While it was still in the
depths of space and its atmosphere lay inert, owing to the cold there,
its intrinsic brightness might be that of the Moon or Mercury. As its
own rotation would greatly affect the speed with which its sunward side
was warmed, we can form no exact idea of the law of its increase in
light. That the augmentation would be great we see from the behavior of
comets as they approach the great hearth of our solar system. But we
are not called upon to evaluate the question to that nicety. We shall
assume, therefore, that its brilliancy would be only that of the Moon,
remembering that the last stages of its fateful journey would be much
more resplendently set off.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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