The chief factor moving in the opposite direction is that of the reduction of 16% in express rates effective in 1914; but there is every evidence that the effect of the first four factors outweighs to a considerable extent the effect of the last. So that we should not go far wrong if we assume that the average charge _per parcel_ of the express companies in 1917 was $.80. This estimate is supported by an investigation of the Interstate Commerce Commission for April, 1917, in which the average charge _per shipment_ (often including more than one parcel) was found to be $.85. By dividing $.80 into the total transportation revenues of the express companies in 1917, we get 280,000,000 as the number of parcels carried by them in that year. The accuracy of this estimate of the number of express parcels may be gauged from an investigation of the Interstate Commerce Commission for the number of parcels carried by express companies during the month of April, 1917. In that month, some 21,100,000 shipments were carried, from which a total of some 250,000,000 _shipments_ for the whole year may be deduced. Remembering, however, that the freight congestion of last winter increased toward the end of the year the normal acceleration of the number of shipments dispatched, and remembering also that many _shipments_ contain more than one _parcel_, there would seem to be little variation required from our first estimate of 280,000,000 parcels carried by the express companies in 1917. NOTE 2--Many, if not most, shippers, especially in the smaller cities and towns, are able to transport their parcels to the parcel-post station without additional cost to themselves. The fee collected from them should therefore not cover also the cost of collecting packages from other shippers. This statement holds especially for the person who ships parcels only occasionally, not primarily as a business transaction, and who has little difficulty in taking or sending them to the dispatching station. On the other hand, without the pick-up feature of the express service, vehicles would be necessary to convey larger packages or a great number of smaller packages from other shippers; so that this feature of express service is as necessary for certain shippers as it is unnecessary for others and should hence not be included in the charges levied on the latter. Again, in theory there would seem to be little reason why the cost of collecting the express fee from the consignee on delivery should be distributed among the express fees on packages which are prepaid. This situation obtains in the present practice of the express companies, where the one fee includes all services except those of an especial nature. But in practice the present parcel-post method of charging a separate fee for collecting on delivery will have to be radically simplified and cheapened if a Government postal express is to follow this separate fee arrangement. For in 1917 less than 1% of the parcels sent by the