From fruit fly experiments it would seem that a total exposure of 30 to
100 rads of radiation will double the spontaneous mutation rate. So much
radiation and such a doubling of the rate would be considered
intolerable for humanity.
Some geneticists have recommended that the average total exposure of
human beings in the first 30 years of life be set at 10 rads. Note that
this figure is set as a _maximum_. Every reasonable method, it is
expected, will be used to allow mankind to fall as far short of this
figure as possible. Note also that the 10-rad figure is an _average_
maximum. The exposure of some individuals to a greater total dose would
be viewed as tolerable for society if it were balanced by the exposure
of other individuals to a lesser total dose.
A total exposure of 10 rads might increase the overall mutation rate, it
is roughly estimated, by 10%. This is serious enough, but is bearable if
we can convince ourselves that the alternative of abandoning radiation
technology altogether will cause still greater suffering.
A 10% increase in mutation rate, whatever it might mean in personal
suffering and public expense, is not likely to threaten the human race
with extinction, or even with serious degeneration.
The human race as a whole may be thought of as somewhat analogous to a
population of dividing cells in a growing tissue. Those affected by
genetic damage drop out and the slack is taken up by those not affected.
If the number of those affected is increased, there would come a crucial
point, or threshold, where the slack could no longer be taken up. The
genetic load might increase to the point where the species as a whole
would degenerate and fade toward extinction—a sort of “racial radiation
sickness”.
We are not near this threshold now, however, and can, therefore, as a
species, absorb a moderate increase in mutation rate without danger of
extinction.
On the other hand, it is _not_ correct to argue, as some do, that an
increase in mutation rate might be actually beneficial. The argument
runs that a higher mutation rate might broaden the gene pool and make it
more flexible, thus speeding up the course of evolution and hastening
the advent of “supermen”—brainier, stronger, healthier than we ourselves
are.
The truth seems to be that the gene pool, as it exists now, supplies us
with all the variability we need for the effective working of the
evolutionary mechanism. That mechanism is functioning with such
efficiency that broadening the gene pool cannot very well add to it, and
if the hope of increased evolutionary efficiency were the only reason to
tolerate man-made radiation, it would be insufficient.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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