Such, in condensed form, is the general thesis and forecast of this
famous German officer. If it be true, there are evil days coming
both for his country and for ours. One may find some consolation in
the discovery that wherever he attempts to fathom our feelings he
makes the most lamentable blunders. He lays it down as an axiom, for
example, that if we were hard-pressed the Colonies would take the
opportunity of abandoning us. We know, on the other hand, that it is
just such a situation which would bring about the federation of the
Empire. He is under the delusion also that there is deep commercial
and political jealousy of the United States in this country, and
that this might very well culminate in war. We are aware that there
is no such feeling, and that next to holding the trident ourselves
we should wish to see it in the hands of our American cousins. One
thing he says, however, which is supremely true, which all of us
would endorse, and which every German should ponder: it is that the
idea of a war between Germany and ourselves never entered into the
thoughts of any one in this country until the year 1902. Why this
particular year? Had the feeling risen from commercial jealousy
upon the part of Great Britain, it must have shown itself far
earlier than that--as early as the "Made in Germany" enactment. It
appeared in 1902 because that was the close of the Boer War, and
because the bitter hostility shown by the Germans in that war opened
our eyes to the fact that they would do us a mischief if they could.
When the German Navy Act of 1900 gave promise that they would soon
have the means of doing so, the first thoughts of danger arose, and
German policy drove us more and more into the ranks of their
opponents. Here, then, General von Bernhardi is right; but in nearly
every other reference to our feelings and views he is wrong; so that
it is to be hoped that in those matters in which we are unable to
check him, such as the course of German thought and of German action
in the future, he is equally mistaken. But I repeat that he is a man
of standing and reputation, and that we should be mad if we did not
take most serious notice of the opinions which he has laid down.
I have headed this article "Great Britain and the Next War," since
it looks at the arguments and problems which General von Bernhardi
has raised in his _Germany and the Next War_ from the British point
of view. May it prove that the title is an absurdity and the war an
imaginative hypothesis. But I should wish, before I close, to devote
a few pages to my view upon the defensive measures of our country. I
am well aware that I speak with no expert authority, which makes it
the more embarrassing that my opinions do not coincide with those of
any one whom I have encountered in this controversy. Still, it is
better to be a voice, however small, than an echo.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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