A further danger soon made itself apparent. It became evident at an early period, as many naval officers had expected, in view of German language at the Hague Conference, that our enemy intended to throw overboard the doctrines of international law when he could gain any advantage by doing so. He accordingly proceeded at once to lay mines in positions where he thought they would be advantageous to his operations, in utter disregard of the safety, not only of British, but also of neutral merchant ships. It was, therefore, thought very probable that he would elaborate this practice by laying mines in the North Sea in positions where he anticipated they might prove effective against the Grand Fleet, and that he would do this without issuing any warning to neutral countries. Consequently, if the main Battle Fleet were kept moving continuously in the central and southern waters of the North Sea, in which waters the enemy could easily lay mines with little danger of his operations being witnessed (as he could carry them out under cover of darkness), it was evident that considerable risks might be incurred without our being aware of the fact. The policy of attrition of our Battle Fleet might thus be carried out with such success as to produce equality, or even inferiority, on the part of the British Fleet as compared with the German, in a comparatively short space of time. The only safeguard against such action which we could take would be to keep mine-sweepers constantly working ahead of the Battle Fleet. But the number of mine-sweepers that we possessed was wholly inadequate for such a task; and even if this had not been so, to carry out such an operation would have necessitated the speed of the Battle Fleet being reduced to some 10 knots, the maximum sweeping speed of mine-sweepers, and it would have been forced also to steer a steady course without zigzagging, conditions rendering the battleships exceedingly vulnerable to submarine attack. The first effect, therefore, of the submarine menace, combined with possible German action in regard to mine-laying, was to cause the Battle Fleet to confine its movements _under ordinary conditions_ to the more northern waters of the North Sea, where the risk might be taken of cruising without the presence of a screen of destroyers, and where it was improbable, owing to the depth of water and the distance from enemy bases, that the Germans would be able to lay mines without discovery. The fact that this course of action would be forced upon us as the submarine and destroyer menace grew had often been present in my mind in pre-War days, when I had expressed the view that the beginning of a naval war would be a conflict between the small craft, whilst the larger and more valuable vessels were held aloof. I have no doubt that this opinion was very generally held by officers of experience.