The explanation by Newton of the observed facts of the motion of the
moon, the way he accounted for precession and nutation and for the
tides; the way in which Laplace explained every detail of the planetary
motions--these achievements may seem to the professional astronomer
equally, if not more, striking and wonderful; but of the facts to be
explained in these cases the general public is necessarily more or less
ignorant, and so no beauty or thoroughness of treatment appeals to it or
excites its imagination. But to predict in the solitude of the study,
with no weapons other than pen, ink, and paper, an unknown and
enormously distant world, to calculate its orbit when as yet it had
never been seen, and to be able to say to a practical astronomer, "Point
your telescope in such a direction at such a time, and you will see a
new planet hitherto unknown to man"--this must always appeal to the
imagination with dramatic intensity, and must awaken some interest in
the dullest.
Prediction is no novelty in science; and in astronomy least of all is it
a novelty. Thousands of years ago Thales, and others whose very names we
have forgotten, could predict eclipses, but not without a certain degree
of inaccuracy. And many other phenomena were capable of prediction by
accumulated experience. A gap between Mars and Jupiter caused a missing
planet to be suspected and looked for, and to be found in a hundred
pieces. The abnormal proper-motion of Sirius suggested to Bessel the
existence of an unseen companion. And these last instances seem to
approach very near the same class of prediction as that of the discovery
of Neptune. Wherein, then, lies the difference? How comes it that some
classes of prediction--such as that if you put your finger in fire it
will be burned--are childishly easy and commonplace, while others excite
in the keenest intellects the highest feelings of admiration? Mainly,
the difference lies, first, in the grounds on which the prediction is
based; second, in the difficulty of the investigation whereby it is
accomplished; third, in the completeness and the accuracy with which it
can be verified. In all these points, the discovery of Neptune stands
out as one among the many verified predictions of science, and the
circumstances surrounding it are of singular interest.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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